558
FXUS61 KRLX 111738
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1238 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
POPS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE SUNDAY
SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAKE HOLD TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH FROM
MOISTURE FETCH OFF OF OF GREAT LAKES, AND WEAK PASSING WAVE.
2.) LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY PROVIDE SOAKING RAIN TO PARTS OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO HAVE MOSTLY ENDED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW WILL TAKE HOLD FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AS
A FAVORABLE MOISTURE FETCH SETS UP OFF THE GREAT LAKES,
COMBINED WITH WEAK PASSING SHORTWAVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. QPF SHOULD BE OVERALL RELATIVELY LIGHT,
BUT WITH COLDER AIR SETTLING INTO THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW MOVES NORTH AND EAST AND FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY,
SLR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 18:1, WITH ANY SNOWFALL EASILY
ACCUMULATING. HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS SO THAT WE FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE
A GENERAL 1 TO 4 INCHES CODED FOR THE NORTHEAST, WITH ISOLATED
SPOTS OF UP TO 5 ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT FLURRIES MAY LINGER
THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. ISSUED AN SPS PER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORS FOR THIS EVENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOCUS THIS WEEKEND SHIFTS TO A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN BOTH
TIMING AND OVERALL SOLUTION CONCERNING THE PATH AND EVOLUTION OF
THIS LOW BETWEEN THE MODELS, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THIS FAR OUT.
LATEST RUN OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH THE UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS FLORIDA DURING THE PERIOD, WITH LESS PHASING WITH
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. GFS RUNS WOULD KEEP
THE BULK OF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER, WHERE AS ECMWF WOULD
PROVIDE A MORE PROLONGED AND WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT
FOR THE AREA AS IT PHASES BETTER WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY,
AND TAKES A PATH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THERE IS ALSO
CONCERN ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, ALTHOUGH DETAILS AND IMPACTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL, TRENDS TEND TO FAVOR A SCENARIO WHERE THE LOW BECOMES
BETTER PHASED WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND TAKES THE MORE
NORTHERLY PATH AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS. AT THIS POINT, WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, HOWEVER, LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONTINUES TO REMAIN A CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD WITH LINGERING SNOW
PACK AND SATURATED SOILS, COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT THERE
COULD BE LINGERING ICE ON SOME WATERWAYS EVEN AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THREATS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRATUS DECK TO VFR HAS OCCURRED, MAINLY
IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION AND POINTS NORTH. HOWEVER, EXPECT
AN MVFR STRATUS DECK TO REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY
AFTER 23Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH POINTS TO THE WEST,
SUCH AS KHTS MAY REMAIN VFR.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME LIGHT AFTER 23Z, AND GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
IN ADDITION, -SHSN WILL FORM TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH,
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND TAF SITES SUCH AS KEKN AND
POSSIBLY KCKB, WITH LOCALIZED/BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. DID NOT CODE IFR VISIBILITY INTO THESE TAFS AT THIS
POINT, AS WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW EVENT EVOLVES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT SOME SITES
THIS AFTERNOON, AND REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATUS TONIGHT MAY
VARY FROM FORECAST. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT COULD
BE MORE INTENSE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN, AND MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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