374
FXUS61 KRLX 121008
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
508 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO NEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN PLACING SOME FLURRIES
INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS LATE MORONING GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW AND ANY CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SQUEEZING OUT ANY PRECIPITATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
2.) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY PROVIDE
A SOAKING RAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME
MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THINGS DRY OUT AS A VERY BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA BY FRIDAY AS TMEEPRATURES WILL
BE AROUND SEAOSNAABLE. WARMER FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STABALIZES TOWARD THE EAST AND PROMOTES ABOVE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES. THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF TOWARD THE EAST AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO COME INTO PLAY FOR SUNDAY AS THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WILL COME TO AN END.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL TAKE A EASTERN PATH JUST TO OUR
SOUTH WHICH IS WHERE THE BULK OF PRECITPAITON WILL OCCUR. AN
ALL RAIN REGIME IS ON TAP AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NROMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ALL RAIN AND ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY
SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX. THE LATEST MODELS RUNS POINT AT THE
FOCUS OF THIS SYSTEM TOARD OUR SOUTH SO THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS MORE NORTH A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL COULD MAKE AN APPEARANCE WHICH COULD PROMOTE SOME
MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO THE SNOW PACK MELTING AND
SATURATED SOILS FROM PREVIOUS METLING AND RAINFALL. LOW LYING
FLOOD PRONE AREAS MAY HAVE TROUBLE BUT THE REST OF THE AREA
SHOULD KEEP THE RUNOFF FLOW CONTROLLED, HOWEVER THE BREAKING UP
OF RIVER ICE STILL COULD CAUSE SOME ICE JAMS, BUT FOR NOW A
SLOW MELT IS HAPPENING SO THE THREAT REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DETAILS ON WINTER PRECIPITATION REMAIN LOW AND UNCERATIN AT
THIS TIME AND SHOULD NOT CUASE ANY REAL IMPACTS DUE TO THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING UP WARM MOIST AIR FOR
THE AREA. A DIFFERENT SCENARIO WHICH THE GFS KEEPS ON THE TABLE
IS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES EVEN FURTHER SOUTH WHICH
WILL BECOME A QUICK BLAST OF RAIN TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. IF THIS WERE TO PAN OUT THE AREA WOULD LIKELY SEE
NO IMPACTS TO FLOODING AND THE LACK OF WINTER PRECITPAITON IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
AT THIS POINT, WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL,
HOWEVER THERE COULD BE LINGERING ICE ON SOME WATERWAYS EVEN
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR ANY THREATS. AFTER THE STORM, ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE
OVER THE REGION AND PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY A VFR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS WILL TEMPORARILY EXIST
ACROSS THE NORTH POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN SITES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS INTO THE TEENS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 02/12/26
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H M M H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN, AND MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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