660
FXUS61 KRLX 121804
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
104 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH
THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WILL BE MONITORING
FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL.
2) ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN ARRIVES WITH A MID WEEK SYSTEM
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND LOW TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEASTERN US THIS WEEKEND,
WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW PROJECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, POTENTIALLY EVEN GRAZING THE GULF COAST. DESPITE THIS
TRAJECTORY, MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD RECEIVE RAIN, COLDER TEMPERATURES
PRESENT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT A MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
WITH REGARD TO RAINFALL, MOST MODELS CONFINE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
OF OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN TO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA; HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST MORE
WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN. CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXTENT AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE FOR NOW DUE TO VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS, AS WELL AS
SLIGHT CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN. SOME FLOODING COULD BE
POSSIBLE IF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER AREAS WHERE THE
GROUND HAS ALREADY BECOME SATURATED BY SNOWMELT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM
RETREATS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DIRECTS A FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN COURTESY OF A WARM
AIR MASS IN PLACE OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, THOUGH
PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR AT PKB, CKB, AND EKN DUE TO
A PERSISTENT DECK OF BKN TO OVC CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA SHOULD PROMPT CLOUDS TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT,
RESULTING IN AREA WIDE VFR FOR FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO
30 KT RANGE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTS SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
WHILE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS THEN
REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN RAIN,
AND MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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