674
FXUS61 KRLX 130901
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
401 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST THINKING HAS SHARPENED REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION
GRADIENT FOR THE SUNDAY SYSTEM, WITH A DISTINCT DRYING TREND
NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER PREVAILS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
2.) A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN SUNDAY. AMOUNTS WILL
VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, WITH 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS, TAPERING TO A TRACE TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH NORTH OF THE METRO VALLEY. BRIEF FREEZING RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING IN
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS DUE TO WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING AND/OR COLD AIR
TRAPPED IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
3.) A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ARRIVES NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOWLANDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A DECK
OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS, DRIVEN
BY LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. METARS
INDICATE CEILINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 3K TO 4KFT. A FEW
SPOTTY FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE COLUMN DRIES OUT
COMPLETELY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY, SCOURING OUT
THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND ESTABLISHING DRY CONDITIONS THAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MODERATE
INTO THE 40S AND 50S, WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING QUITE LOW (TEENS
AND 20S), CHARACTERISTIC OF THIS DRY AIRMASS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE PERIOD CENTERS ON A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY. THERE IS A NOTABLE BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REGARDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST HEAVILY WEIGHTS THE INPUT SUGGESTING THE BULK OF
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
CONSEQUENTLY, A SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IS EXPECTED. AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COULD SEE
0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL, WHILE LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-64
CORRIDOR MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE, STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL
QUICKLY INTRODUCE A WARM NOSE BETWEEN H850 AND H700 WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING, PROMOTING LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS
THE DOMINANT TYPE. HOWEVER WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING IN THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR FREEZING MARK AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE CENTRAL GUIDANCE
OFTEN ERODES THIS TOO QUICKLY, MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION TRANSITION ALL PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.
OVERALL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED GIVEN THE WEEKEND
TIMING, TIME OF DAY, AND RESIDUAL ICE ABATEMENT ON TRAVEL
SURFACES.
HYDROLOGICALLY, SOILS REMAIN SOMEWHAT SOGGY FROM RECENT
SNOWMELT. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED, THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE COALFIELDS COULD GENERATE
ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, ESPECIALLY
WHERE ICE IS STILL CLOGGING/PARTIALLY CLOGGING SMALLER CULVERTS.
MOSTLY OPEN CHANNELS IN THE SOUTH AND LOW STREAMFLOWS IN THE
NORTH MITIGATES BUT DOESN'T ZERO OUT THE RISK OF ICE JAMS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS CONTROL MONDAY, INITIATING A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER. THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID-WEEK, USHERING
IN A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS MODIFICATION. H850 TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO SURGE, SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD CHALLENGE
THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. A NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. DUE TO THE LACK OF PHASING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY AND MOISTURE LIMITATIONS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
A STRATOCU DECK LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION, PARTICULARLY
IMPACTING PKB, EKN AND CKB. SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER SUNRISE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND THE COLUMN DRIES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PKB/EKN/CKB COULD BOUNCE AROUND EITHER
SIDE OF 3000 FT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 02/13/26
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
TERMINALS (BKW/HTS/CRW) IN RAIN AND LOW STRATUS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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