372
FXUS61 KRLX 150940
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
440 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND QPF TO ALIGN WITH LATEST CAMS
TRENDS FOR TODAYS SYSTEM. ADDED MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG FOR
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS (0.50-1.00 INCH) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND
MOUNTAINS. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS
THIS MORNING.
2.) A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWPACK EROSION.
3.) GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY PIVOTING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY,
DRIVING A SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY GENERATING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION, WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.
THERMAL PROFILES FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DOMINANT WARM
NOSE BETWEEN H850 AND H750, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING +3C TO
+5C ALOFT. THIS SUPPORTS RAIN AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS (GENERALLY ABOVE 3500 FT),
SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR 0C AT ONSET MAY
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW BEFORE DYNAMIC COOLING IS
OVERCOME BY WARM ADVECTION, TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO ALL
RAIN BY MIDDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH ARE
FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ORIENTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED. WHILE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT MOIST FROM THE MELT OUT OF
THE LOWER ELEVATION SNOW AND ICE PACK, THIS RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION OVER A 12-HOUR PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY
WITHIN BANKFULL LIMITS, THOUGH MINOR DRAINAGE ISSUES IN LOW-
LYING AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM, COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION FROM
TODAYS RAIN, WILL LIKELY FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH
MID-WEEK, SIGNALING A PATTERN CHANGE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST, RETURN FLOW FROM
THE GULF WILL ADVECT A MUCH MILDER AIRMASS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH 50S LIKELY EVEN AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARMTH, WITH FREEZING LEVELS RISING
WELL ABOVE THE TERRAIN SUMMITS, WILL FACILITATE A STEADY
RIPENING AND MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINS.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE MELT WILL BE ORDERLY; HOWEVER,
STREAM FLOWS OUT OF THE HIGHER WILL REMAIN BOLSTERED DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF RUNOFF AND TODAYS RAINFALL. UNSURE ON THE ICE
STATUS ON WATERWAYS COMING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN STEEPER
RUNS, BUT IF ANY STREAMS OR RIVERS ARE STILL COMPLETELY FROZEN
OVER SOME MINOR ICE JAM ISSUES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED
FLOWS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BY WEDNESDAY, A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE
APPROACHING FRONT, STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER WOULD YIELD SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS.
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT APPEARS MODEST, LIMITING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SECONDARY SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE EJECTING
FROM THE PLAINS MAY INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
WEEK, POTENTIALLY ENHANCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH MODEL SPREAD REGARDING THE TIMING AND
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES LEADS TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD. BEHIND THE FRONT,
SEASONABLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD
RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS. VFR CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY 15Z AT MOST SITES AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO 2-4SM IN RAIN AND MIST ARE
EXPECTED.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE
POSSIBLE AT CRW, HTS, AND PKB TOWARDS AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD IF
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 5-10KTS TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. FOG COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST TONIGHT CONTINGENT ON
CLEARING OUT OF CLOUDS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 02/15/26
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H L H M M M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H L H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H L H H M H M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H L H L M M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
RAIN, LOW STRATUS, AND PERHAPS FOG SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUING IFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN COALFIELDS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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