828
FXUS61 KRLX 151840
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
140 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
930 AM UPDATE...
HAVE INSERTED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST AREA-WIDE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT BASED ON WEBCAMS AND LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN ATOP COLD
GROUND AND/OR LINGERING SNOWPACK. ADDITIONALLY, BUMPED UP SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
(POCAHONTAS/RANDOLPH COUNTIES), GENERALLY ABOVE 3,500-4,000
FEET, WHERE A QUICK INCH HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME AREAS, WITH
TOTALS OF 1-3" EXPECTED BEFORE A TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND QPF TO ALIGN WITH LATEST CAMS
TRENDS FOR TODAYS SYSTEM. ADDED MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG FOR
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS (0.50-1.00 INCH) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND
MOUNTAINS. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS
THIS MORNING.
2.) A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWPACK EROSION.
3.) GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY PIVOTING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY,
DRIVING A SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY GENERATING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION, WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.
THERMAL PROFILES FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DOMINANT WARM
NOSE BETWEEN H850 AND H750, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING +3C TO
+5C ALOFT. THIS SUPPORTS RAIN AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS (GENERALLY ABOVE 3500 FT),
SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR 0C AT ONSET MAY
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW BEFORE DYNAMIC COOLING IS
OVERCOME BY WARM ADVECTION, TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO ALL
RAIN BY MIDDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH ARE
FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ORIENTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED. WHILE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT MOIST FROM THE MELT OUT OF
THE LOWER ELEVATION SNOW AND ICE PACK, THIS RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION OVER A 12-HOUR PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY
WITHIN BANKFULL LIMITS, THOUGH MINOR DRAINAGE ISSUES IN LOW-
LYING AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE EXITS. PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM, COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION FROM
TODAYS RAIN, WILL LIKELY FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH
MID-WEEK, SIGNALING A PATTERN CHANGE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST, RETURN FLOW FROM
THE GULF WILL ADVECT A MUCH MILDER AIRMASS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH 50S LIKELY EVEN AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARMTH, WITH FREEZING LEVELS RISING
WELL ABOVE THE TERRAIN SUMMITS, WILL FACILITATE A STEADY
RIPENING AND MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINS.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE MELT WILL BE ORDERLY; HOWEVER,
STREAM FLOWS OUT OF THE HIGHER WILL REMAIN BOLSTERED DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF RUNOFF AND TODAYS RAINFALL. UNSURE ON THE ICE
STATUS ON WATERWAYS COMING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN STEEPER
RUNS, BUT IF ANY STREAMS OR RIVERS ARE STILL COMPLETELY FROZEN
OVER SOME MINOR ICE JAM ISSUES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED
FLOWS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BY WEDNESDAY, A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE
APPROACHING FRONT, STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER WOULD YIELD SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS.
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT APPEARS MODEST, LIMITING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SECONDARY SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE EJECTING
FROM THE PLAINS MAY INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
WEEK, POTENTIALLY ENHANCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH MODEL SPREAD REGARDING THE TIMING AND
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES LEADS TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD. BEHIND THE FRONT,
SEASONABLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA AMID WIDESPREAD STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN,
WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. GENERAL LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW HAS KEPT MOST TERMINALS IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AS VFR/MVFR
THUS FAR, BUT THE OVERALL TREND GOING FORWARD IS EXPECTED TO BE
A GRADUAL REDUCTION INTO MAINLY IFR/LIFR BY LATER THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE MAIN FOCUS THEN BEING A COMBINATION OF
LOW STRATUS AND FOG, WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF SPOTTY DRIZZLE IN
SPOTS. FOG INTENSITY OVERNIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANY
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. IFR OR WORSE IS CURRENTLY PROGGED FOR
ALL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT MONDAY MORNING, WITH MOST TERMINALS
NOT RETURNING TO VFR UNTIL LATE MORNING. ALTHOUGH LOW
PROBABILITY, MVFR COULD LINGER AT A SITE OR TWO (ACROSS THE
NORTH) INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW TODAY WILL GO CALM IN MANY
AREAS TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS ON MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILING RESTRICTIONS TODAY MAY VARY FROM
THE FORECAST. FOG COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST TONIGHT DEPENDING ON CLEARING OUT OF CLOUDS. FINALLY,
TIMING OF RETURN TO VFR ON MONDAY COULD BE LATER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H M L M M M M H H H H L
HTS CONSISTENCY L M L M M M M M H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M L L H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H M L
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP/GW
AVIATION...GW
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