084
FXUS61 KRLX 152020
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
320 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE INSERTED
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST AREA-WIDE TODAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. FOG COULD BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AMID PATCHY
FOG, WITH THE HEAVIEST EVENT TOTAL AMOUNTS (0.75-1.00") BEING
ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA, WHILE A GENERAL 0.25-0.75"
IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE CWA. RAIN QUICKLY TAPERS
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
2.) AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
WITH DENSE FOG IN SOME AREAS.
3.) A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WORK
WEEK. MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK STEADILY MELTS OUT.
4.) PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY WORKING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIPITATION HAS SWITCHED TO ALL RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHEST OF MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS AFTER
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN QUICKLY TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE UP TO 0.25" ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTH/EAST,
WITH LESS FURTHER NORTHWEST. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO
THE FORECAST AREA-WIDE GIVEN RAIN ATOP COLD GROUND AND/OR
LINGERING SNOWPACK.
HYDROLOGICALLY SPEAKING, THE OVERALL THREAT FOR FLOODING
REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE NATURE OF THE RAIN,
GENERALLY FALLING AT LESS THAN 0.10"/HR. A FEW ISOLATED ISSUES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS RAINFALL GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH
THE TRIBUTARIES INTO THE MAINSTEM RIVERS GIVEN SOME LINGERING
RIVER ICE IN SPOTS, BUT OTHERWISE ANY ISSUES SHOULD GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO LOW-LYING OR TYPICAL TROUBLE AREAS AND BE QUITE
ISOLATED IN NATURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM ABOVE. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF FOG, WITH A LIKELY EXPANSION
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. FOG INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER, BUT GIVEN PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AMID QUIET SFC-H925 MB FLOW, SOME DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED
IN SPOTS, WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SUCH BEING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/WESTERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE. FOG / LOW STRATUS COULD BE SLOW
TO LIFT MONDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY (50S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS) FOLLOWING THE DIMINISHING OF LINGERING FOG / LOW
STRATUS MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT AND RETURN / DOWNSLOPE FLOW
RESULT IN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BEGINNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH EVEN THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS PUSHING 50. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A STEADY MELT OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT GIVEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER (MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY), THE THREAT FOR ICE JAMS / FLOODING
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN LOWER, BUT NON-ZERO.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
A GRADUAL PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST THE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION, RESULTING IN A PROGRESSIVELY
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, THIS TRANSLATES INTO
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING LATER ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK GIVEN THE CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. STEADY COOLING IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA AMID WIDESPREAD STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN,
WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. GENERAL LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW HAS KEPT MOST TERMINALS IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AS VFR/MVFR
THUS FAR, BUT THE OVERALL TREND GOING FORWARD IS EXPECTED TO BE
A GRADUAL REDUCTION INTO MAINLY IFR/LIFR BY LATER THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE MAIN FOCUS THEN BEING A COMBINATION OF
LOW STRATUS AND FOG, WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF SPOTTY DRIZZLE IN
SPOTS. FOG INTENSITY OVERNIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANY
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. IFR OR WORSE IS CURRENTLY PROGGED FOR
ALL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT MONDAY MORNING, WITH MOST TERMINALS
NOT RETURNING TO VFR UNTIL LATE MORNING. ALTHOUGH LOW
PROBABILITY, MVFR COULD LINGER AT A SITE OR TWO (ACROSS THE
NORTH) INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW TODAY WILL GO CALM IN MANY
AREAS TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS ON MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILING RESTRICTIONS TODAY MAY VARY FROM
THE FORECAST. FOG COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST TONIGHT DEPENDING ON CLEARING OUT OF CLOUDS. FINALLY,
TIMING OF RETURN TO VFR ON MONDAY COULD BE LATER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H M L M M M M H H H H L
HTS CONSISTENCY L M L M M M M M H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M L L H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H M L
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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