705
FXUS61 KRLX 160717
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
217 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AT LEAST RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
A COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PUT AN END TO THE
SPRING FEVER WEATHER ON THE WAY THIS WEEK, SENDING TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO, IF NOT A LITTLE BELOW, NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THAT TIME COULD BRING
SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND DENSE FOG WILL ENSHROUD THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING, AND AT LEAST RIVER VALLEY DENSE
FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- 2) A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THE WORK WEEK. MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK STEADILY MELTS OUT.
- 3) A COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGS AN END TO
THE SPRING FEVER WEATHER, WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR EVEN A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE, BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW CLOUD AND DENSE FOG ENSHROUD THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING,
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER A COOL, WET GROUND AFTER A RAINY
SUNDAY. IT IS NOTED THAT A SOIL TEMPERATURE 4 INCHES DEEP HERE
AT THE OFFICE THAT HAS HELD NEAR 32.7 F SINCE THE DEEP FREEZE
ROSE SUNDAY AND SITS AT 36.2 F EARLY THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITY IN FOG VARIED UNDER THE LOW CLOUD LEFT BEHIND COMING
OUT OF THE RAIN LATE SUNDAY, BUT THE FOG WAS MORE CONSISTENTLY
DENSE IN THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE THE LOW CLOUD INTERCEPTED THE
TERRAIN.
CLEARING WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WAS ONLY
LEADING TO DENSE FOG FORMATION. IT APPEARED THIS TREND WOULD
CONTINUE DOWN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT IT
WAS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS CLEARING WOULD MAKE MUCH, IF ANY
INROADS, EASTWARD. IN FACT, ANIMATION OF GOES-R MICROPHYSICS
IMAGERY SHOWED SOME OF THE LOW CLOUD ACTUALLY BUILDING BACK
WESTWARD.
EITHER WAY, DENSE FOG WAS ALREADY COMMON ACROSS THE AREA AND
IS LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD BEFORE DAWN AND ON THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE, BEFORE THINNING AND LIFTING LATE THIS MORNING.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN TONIGHT AT LEAST ALONG THE
RIVER VALLEYS, AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL DECOUPLE EVEN AMID A
LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE THEN
EXITING HIGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH NO NEW COLD AIR BEHIND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT ABOUT OUR RAINY SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT EVEN GET
DOWN TO FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING,
AND WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND
FOG BREAK UP AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
WITH HIGH THIN CLOUD RATHER THAN A STOUT LOW CLOUD DECK TONIGHT,
RADIATIVE COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET DOWN TO CLOSE
TO FREEZING FOR LOWS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH BELOW FREEZING
LOWS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE NORMALLY COOLER
LOWLANDS SPOTS.
WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CROSSING AND A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW OF WARMER AIR, TEMPERATURES MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SOME 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE LOWER TERRAIN, WITH LOWS ABOVE FREEZING EVEN IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WELL ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE LOWLANDS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEADY MELT OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT GIVEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY, THE THREAT FOR ICE
JAMS AND FLOODING AS A RESULT SHOULD BE LOW, BUT NON-ZERO. WE
SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FLUSH OUT MORE OF THE RIVER
ICE.
WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE A RUN AT 70 IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS
AT SOME POINT THIS WEEK, THE WARMEST DAY WILL DEPEND UPON
TIMING AND IMPACTS OF SYSTEMS CROSSING THIS WEEK, TWO OF NOTE.
THE FIRST IS A SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS FAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES. THAT
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME WIND AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
THE SECOND IS A MORE STOUT SYSTEM THAT IS MORE LIKELY TO MAKE
INROADS INTO THE GULF RIDGE AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND/OR FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
RIGHT BEHIND IT, WHICH ERADICATES THE GULF RIDGE AND
ESTABLISHES AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL NOT ONLY END OUR SPRING FEVER WEATHER, BUT
ALSO TAKE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO, IF NOT A LITTLE BELOW, NORMAL
COME SUNDAY.
DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE EAST COAST
TROUGH, A COASTAL LOW MAY FORM, GIVING RISE TO RAIN THIS
WEEKEND TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SNOW
SHOWERS FROM LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ARE STILL POSSIBLE BY THE END END OF THE WEEKEND IN THE
ABSENCE OF COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ENSHROUD THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER A COOL, WET GROUND AFTER A RAINY
SUNDAY.
VISIBILITY IN THE FOG VARIED UNDER THE STRATUS LEFT BEHIND
COMING OUT OF THE RAIN LATE SUNDAY, BUT WAS MORE CONSISTENTLY
VLIFR IN THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE THE LOW CLOUD INTERCEPTED THE
TERRAIN, MOST NOTABLY BKW.
CLEARING WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WAS ONLY
LEADING TO VLIFR DENSE FOG FORMATION. IT APPEARED THIS TREND
WOULD CONTINUE DOWN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING,
BUT IT WAS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS CLEARING WOULD MAKE MUCH, IF
ANY,INROADS EASTWARD. IN FACT, ANIMATION OF GOES-R MICROPHYSICS
IMAGERY SHOWED SOME OF THE STRATUS ACTUALLY BUILDING BACK
WESTWARD.
EITHER WAY, VLIFR DENSE FOG WAS MOST PERSISTENT AT PKB, CKB AND
BKW EARLY THIS MORNING, AND IS LIKELY TO IMPACT ALL SITES AT
LEAST AT TIMES BEFORE DAWN AND ON INTO THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS, BEFORE THINNING AND LIFTING LATE THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GIVING WAY TO A RETURN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW, THE
STRATUS AND FOG WERE FORECAST TO RETREAT OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS
FIRST, AND THEN ON NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE
THIS MORNING, EVEN INTO THIS AFTERNOON, ACTUALLY REVERSING THE
EARLY MORNING TREND AMID A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE
BUILDING HIGH, AND THE EXITING LOW THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN SUNDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING.
THE HIGH WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY WHERE AND WHEN WE
CAN SHAKE THE STRATUS AND FOG, BUT VLIFR DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO
FORM AGAIN TONIGHT AT LEAST ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS, AS MOST
LOCATIONS WILL DECOUPLE EVEN AMID THE LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW.
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING,
ABOVE THE INVERSION, WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MAY VARY FROM
THE FORECAST, DEPENDING ON THE STRATUS BREAKING UP. TIMING OF
RETURN TO VFR TODAY COULD BE LATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE FOG TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 02/16/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H L M H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H M L L H H H H L M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H M L L H H H L M H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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