160
FXUS61 KRLX 161559
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1059 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED.
SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE, THIS FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PRIOR
FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN AND
EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- 2) MOST OF THE WEEK WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND SPRINGLIKE,
BUT ANOTHER TASTE OF WINTER WILL RETURN BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THIS WEEK'S WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST CHANCE WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE OF MID-LEVEL
ENERGY SLIDES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. THE MAIN CORE OF LOW PRESSURE AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO, AND THE
NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH THIS ONE BRINGING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY. IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE, MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH DEW POINTS
RANGING FROM 50-60 DEGREES LATE THURSDAY. THIS, COMBINED WITH A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHERE MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGEST. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT, CAPE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH MODELS ONLY
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 200-400 J/KG DURING THIS PERIOD.
BEYOND FRIDAY, MODELS ARE SPLIT REGARDING WHAT HAPPENS THIS WEEKEND.
SOME MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, WHILE OTHERS SHOW CLEARING BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW. WE
WILL KEEP 20-40% CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, 0.75-1.50
INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MUCH OF
THAT RAINFALL OCCURRING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEK, LEADING TO
A GRADUAL AND CONSISTENT WARM UP. THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS OUR AREA IS POSITIONED IN THE WARM
SECTOR, AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
A PATTERN SHIFT SHOULD RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
A TROUGH TAKES HOLD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. BECAUSE
OF DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
MAGNITUDE AND EXTENT OF THIS COLDER PATTERN CHANGE.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ENSHROUD THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER A COOL, WET GROUND AFTER A RAINY
SUNDAY.
VISIBILITY IN THE FOG VARIED UNDER THE STRATUS LEFT BEHIND
COMING OUT OF THE RAIN LATE SUNDAY, BUT WAS MORE CONSISTENTLY
VLIFR IN THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE THE LOW CLOUD INTERCEPTED THE
TERRAIN, MOST NOTABLY BKW.
CLEARING WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ONLY
LEAD TO VLIFR DENSE FOG FORMATION, BUT THIS CLEARING WAS MAKING
ANY INROADS EASTWARD.
OPENED THE 12Z TAF SET WITH VLIFR DENSE FOG EVERYWHERE BUT EKN,
ALLOWING FOR BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO LIFR FOG THROUGH 15-16Z THIS
MORNING. EKN HAS IFR CEILING WITH IFR FOG AT TIMES THIS
MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GIVING WAY TO A RETURN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW,
THE FOG AND STRATUS WERE FORECAST TO RETREAT OUT OF THE
MOUNTAINS FIRST, WITH THINNING AND LIFTING THEN SPREADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING, EVEN
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING FOR THE AREA.
THE HIGH WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY WHERE AND WHEN WE
CAN SHAKE THE STRATUS AND FOG, BUT VLIFR DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO
FORM AGAIN TONIGHT AT LEAST ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS, AS MOST
LOCATIONS WILL DECOUPLE EVEN AMID THE LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW.
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING,
ABOVE THE INVERSION, WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MAY VARY FROM
THE FORECAST TIMING OF RETURN TO VFR TODAY COULD BE LATER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. REDEVELOPMENT OF THE FOG TONIGHT MAY ALSO
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H M H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L H H L L H H M M H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L L L M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M H L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M H M H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...TRM
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