092
FXUS61 KRLX 161715
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1215 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED.
SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE, THIS FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PRIOR
FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN AND
EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- 2) MOST OF THE WEEK WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND SPRINGLIKE,
BUT ANOTHER TASTE OF WINTER WILL RETURN BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THIS WEEK'S WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST CHANCE WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE OF MID-LEVEL
ENERGY SLIDES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. THE MAIN CORE OF LOW PRESSURE AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO, AND THE
NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH THIS ONE BRINGING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY. IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE, MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH DEW POINTS
RANGING FROM 50-60 DEGREES LATE THURSDAY. THIS, COMBINED WITH A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHERE MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGEST. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT, CAPE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH MODELS ONLY
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 200-400 J/KG DURING THIS PERIOD.
BEYOND FRIDAY, MODELS ARE SPLIT REGARDING WHAT HAPPENS THIS WEEKEND.
SOME MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, WHILE OTHERS SHOW CLEARING BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW. WE
WILL KEEP 20-40% CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, 0.75-1.50
INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MUCH OF
THAT RAINFALL OCCURRING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEK, LEADING TO
A GRADUAL AND CONSISTENT WARM UP. THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS OUR AREA IS POSITIONED IN THE WARM
SECTOR, AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
A PATTERN SHIFT SHOULD RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
A TROUGH TAKES HOLD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. BECAUSE
OF DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
MAGNITUDE AND EXTENT OF THIS COLDER PATTERN CHANGE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG IS ERODING THIS AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, AND CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING
TO MVFR AND VFR. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH VFR STATUS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, MVFR/IFR DENSE FOG MAY RETURN TO SOME OF THE RIVER
VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 1300-1400Z TUESDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THE REST OF TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY
SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL
INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H L H H H H H H M H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H M M M H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
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