936
FXUS61 KRLX 162338
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
638 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN AND
EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- 2) MOST OF THE WEEK WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND SPRINGLIKE,
BUT ANOTHER TASTE OF WINTER WILL RETURN BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THIS WEEK'S WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST CHANCE WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE OF MID-LEVEL
ENERGY SLIDES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. THE MAIN CORE OF LOW PRESSURE AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO, AND THE
NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH THIS ONE BRINGING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY. IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE, MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH DEW POINTS
RANGING FROM 50-60 DEGREES LATE THURSDAY. THIS, COMBINED WITH A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHERE MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGEST. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT, CAPE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH MODELS ONLY
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 200-400 J/KG DURING THIS PERIOD.
BEYOND FRIDAY, MODELS ARE SPLIT REGARDING WHAT HAPPENS THIS WEEKEND.
SOME MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, WHILE OTHERS SHOW CLEARING BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW. WE
WILL KEEP 20-40% CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, 0.75-1.50
INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MUCH OF
THAT RAINFALL OCCURRING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEK, LEADING TO
A GRADUAL AND CONSISTENT WARM UP. THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS OUR AREA IS POSITIONED IN THE WARM
SECTOR, AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
A PATTERN SHIFT SHOULD RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
A TROUGH TAKES HOLD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. BECAUSE
OF DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
MAGNITUDE AND EXTENT OF THIS COLDER PATTERN CHANGE.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL YIELD DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR STRATOCU THAT LIFTED
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WILL MEANDER BACK DOWN INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONGSIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF RIVER
VALLEY FOG FOR TUESDAY MORNING. KPKB IS PROGGED TO BE THE ONLY
TAF SITE THAT COULD OBSERVE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS
AND FOG. WIDESPREAD VFR THEN ONCE AGAIN RULES THE ROOST AFTER
DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H M L L L L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN RIVER VALLEY FOG.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...05
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