650
FXUS61 KRLX 030743
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
243 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATES TO AMOUNTS OF LINGERING FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND GREENBRIER VALLEY THIS MORNING.
UPDATES ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GREENBRIER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
2) DAILY CHANCES FOR RAINFALL EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK
COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
3) A WARMING TREND COMMENCES TODAY AND RESIDES THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH EARLY SUMMER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUES UNTIL 10AM TODAY. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS, BUT FREEZING RAIN AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
ADVISORY/WARNING AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THESE ICE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES AND CREATE HAZARDOUS TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL
THIS MORNING. MODERATE IMPACTS TO THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE
COULD ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GRADUALLY RISING EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY(GREATER SE POCAHONTAS INCLUDING MARLINTON AND HILLSBORO)
WILL LIKELY HOLD FREEZING TEMPERATURES UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK DUE
TO PERSISTENT COLD AIR DAMMING.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY BE TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO NE EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT LINGERING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STUBBORN, NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONT CLINGS TO THE REGION THIS
WEEK WITH ADDED SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVELS. THE RESULT IS DAILY ROUNDS OF RAINFALL
WITH THE ADDED RISK OF HYDRO ISSUES.
THIS FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH LATER TODAY AS A WARM FRONT
USHERING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
OHIO. 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED TO FALL
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, AND THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST OHIO OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND SETS
UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, MOST LIKELY SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE SAME AREAS
ARE ONCE AGAIN OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL LIKELY.
THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOST OF WHAT FALLS ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT AFTERWARDS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
LOCALIZED TO MINOR FLOODING. A LONG-FUSE FLOOD WATCH IS POSSIBLE
IN THE NEAR FUTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. ESPECIALLY WITH ADDED CHANCES OF RAINFALL THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW MELT IS
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL ADD TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME, THERE
IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE
HOCKING AND MUSKINGUM RIVER BASINS IN OHIO; AND THE LITTLE
KANAWHA, WEST FORK, AND MIDDLE ISLAND BASINS IN WEST VIRGINIA.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OTHERS MAY BECOME A CONCERN AS WELL WITH THE
ACTIVE PATTERN SEEMING TO STICK AROUND FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A WARMING TREND STARTS TODAY DESPITE UNSETTLED WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND MID 60S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 40S AND 50S POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE WARM FRONT TODAY
THOUGH. WEDNESDAY WILL BE OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS THE FRONT REMAINS PARKED ACROSS OUR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO BE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS WITH SOME LOCATIONS SUCH AS WILLIAMSON, CLINTWOOD AND
MAYBE GRUNDY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES WITH A HEFTY WARM
SECTOR.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS PROJECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AS A STOUT DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS NUDGES
UP OUR WAY. 70 DEGREES IS POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND(POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK
TOO). FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TEMPERATURE SPREADS SHOW A MAJORITY
GOING WITH 80 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE USUAL WARM
SPOTS. REGARDLESS OF THE TEMPERATURES REACHED A WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SCHEME WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MOST SITES HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT THIS HOUR, DESPITE LINGERING
OVC ADN BKN SKIES. POCKETS OF MVFR OR IFR WILL LIKELY TRAVERSE
THE AREA AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR MOST ALL SITES IS EXPECTED BY ~12Z WITH
SHOWERS AND OVC TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT CKB AND EKN HOLD MVFR FOR A BIT LONGER THAN THE OTHER
SITES THOUGH. POCKETS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING TOO BEFORE MODERATE TO HEAVY RA
ARRIVES BETWEEN ~17Z AND ~19Z. MVFR AND IFR ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO MOST SITES WITH THIS NEXT BATCH, ESPECIALLY AT PKB,
CKB, AND EKN.
SE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TONIGHT,
BREEZY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES. WINDS SHIFT S'RLY TO SW'RLY
BY AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND MAY BE
BREEZY AT TIMES(15-20KTS).
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND LOCATION
OF RESIDUAL RAIN/SNOW WILL LIKELY VARY THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 03/03/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EST 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NUMEROUS CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, LEADING TO
POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS EACH DAY IN REDUCED VISIBILITY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ516-518-520-522-524.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ523-
526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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