352
FXUS61 KRLX 031721
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1221 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA,
SOUTHEAST OHIO, AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 1 PM WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA,
SOUTHEAST OHIO, AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
2) A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
50S AND LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY, SOME AREAS WILL REACH
THE 80S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTH TODAY AND EVENTUALLY STALL OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA OR SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. A STREAM OF 500-MB
VORTICITY WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG SUPPORT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MIDDAY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. SOME OF THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA, SOUTHEAST OHIO, AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY WANES, BUT ANOTHER WAVE OF MID-
LEVEL ENERGY WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.
FRIDAY MAY END UP MOSTLY DRY WITH ANOTHER BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL
ENERGY, BUT ADDITIONAL WAVES OF VORTICITY WILL APPROACH THIS WEEKEND
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. ACROSS NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY, SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA, AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA, ANYWHERE FROM 0.25 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.
REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ON TOP OF
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL CAN LEAD TO FLOODING
ISSUES. IN THE MOUNTAINS, SNOWMELT WILL BE ANOTHER FACTOR TO
CONSIDER ALONG WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
500-MB HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TODAY, AND A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SOME OF THE
LOWLANDS WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. A COLD FRONT
MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY, DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY SEEN THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY THIS EVENING, RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA, REDUCING VISIBILITY TO MVFR AND POTENTIALLY
IFR IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BY
03Z WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH IFR AND MVFR EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LOWER CIGS AND RAIN MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H L H M M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M L H H M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H L M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NUMEROUS CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, LEADING TO
POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS EACH DAY IN REDUCED VISIBILITY.THERE
ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL AS THIS WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
026>032-039-040-517>526.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page