357
FXUS61 KRLX 041735
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1235 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. THE FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO
LESSER ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND LOWER CONVECTIVE TRAINING
POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1. REPEATED ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WILL MAINTAIN A FLOOD THREAT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
2. ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEARING OR EXCEEDING DAILY RECORDS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
3. A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BRING A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE, PROVIDED
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT, A NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL DEVELOP AND OVERRUN THE STALLED BOUNDARY, PROVIDING FOCUSED
ASCENT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA. THIS REGION IS PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE
TO RUNOFF GIVEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THAT
HAS RESULTED IN SATURATED SOILS.
FLOW ALOFT IS ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY,
ESTABLISHING A HIGHLY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC SETUP FOR CELL
TRAINING. WHILE DETERMINISTIC NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AREAL
AVERAGE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 1 INCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
PERSISTENT TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD EASILY YIELD
LOCALIZED TOTALS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING
1 INCH PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE CORES WILL RAPIDLY
TRANSLATE TO SURFACE RUNOFF, OVERWHELMING SMALL BASINS AND
NARROW HOLLOWS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
IN TIME FOR THESE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES. FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST, LESSER ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR
CONVECTIVE TRAINING HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE CANCELLATION OF THE
WATCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT,
PLACING THE FORECAST AREA FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. H500
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US AND EXTEND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL ADVECT AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION, SETTING THE STAGE FOR NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING
TEMPERATURES. NBM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PUSHES AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE
EXCEPTIONALLY MILD, REMAINING IN THE 60S AND LIKELY EXCEEDING
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE A POTENT COLD
FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE PROGGED TO BE HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PARAMETERS, SUCH AS
EFFECTIVE BULK WIND DIFFERENCE, APPROACHING 40KTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN COUNTIES.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THE
THERMODYNAMIC EVOLUTION. EXTENSIVE PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER OR
LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS COULD INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING AND
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING OCCURS
AND MIXED-LAYER CAPE (MLCAPE) VALUES CAN APPROACH OR EXCEED 1000
J/KG, A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE. GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT, DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD, EXACERBATED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ANY ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT CAPE (DCAPE). ADDITIONALLY, ADEQUATE 0-1
KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WOULD
INTRODUCE A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS EXIST AT THIS
HOUR, WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTH. CONDITIONS
SHOULD ROUGHLY REMAIN STATUS QUO THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL JET WILL THEN TRIGGER ANOTHER
WAVE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT, PRIMARILY IMPACTING PKB, BUT COULD EXTEND AS FAR AS
CRW/HTS AND CKB. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY DROP BELOW 3 MILES
IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES, WHILE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
AROUND 1000 FT AGL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ALL SITES.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
LIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS, THOUGH LOCALLY ERRATIC
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND DURATION OF THE
HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE BANDS TONIGHT REMAIN UNCERTAIN. TERMINALS
THAT EXPERIENCE DIRECT HITS FROM TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD
SEE VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW 1 MILE FOR LONGER DURATIONS THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M L H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD MAXIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MAXIMUM LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ007>011-017-019-
020.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
CLIMATE...JP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page