946
FXUS61 KRLX 051033
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
533 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
530 AM UPDATE...
SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTRODUCED
ACROSS A BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY.(KEY MESSAGE 3)
302 AM UPDATE...
UPDATES TO THE FLOODING THREAT TODAY, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY/SATURDAY, AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PERSISTENT FLOODING RISK: ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SUSTAIN THE FLOODING THREAT
THROUGH TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA.
2. UNSEASONABLE WARMTH: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXCEED DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
3. WEEKEND SEVERE THREAT: A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THESE CONDITIONS RIPEN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OUR FLOODING THREAT ACROSS THE AREA LINGERS TODAY WITH MORE
ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A STUBBORN SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT. TODAY WILL BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION WITH THE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM COVERAGE OF RAIN BECOMING MORE OF A
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE MODE (ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS).
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN OUR AREA TODAY AS IT WILL
RESIDE FARTHER WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AND A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/4)FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING THOUGH.
A MARGINAL RISK OR SLIGHT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS AGAIN TODAY. WATER ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OR MULTIPLE TODAY AS A RESULT SO THE FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 1PM, UNLESS IT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED INTO
THE EVENING.
OVERALL, SCATTERED INSTANCES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO SPAWN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN WAVES LATER IN THE MORNING
AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL EXISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR A BULK OF THE AREA.
CONVECTION CHANCES ARE LOWER AT 20-40% WITH THE HIGHER END BEING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY).
SHORT-RANGE, CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
AMOUNTS. THE HRRR PLAYS THE ROLE OF "THE OPTIMIST" SHOWING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXITING BY 3PM TODAY WITH LESSER ADDITIONAL QPF
(0.10"-0.50") AND CONVECTIVE THREAT. HOWEVER, THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS GREATER CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN TIER, WHICH COULD IN TURN LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE HI-RES NAM, "THE PESSIMIST" SHOWS ANOTHER SCATTERED ROUND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL,
EFFICIENT RAINFALL, EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EVENT. IT SHOWS SOME
ADDITIONAL QPF REACHING AROUND OR OVER AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS,
WHICH WOULD BE A WORST CASE SCENARIO IN REGARDS TO ONGOING
FLOODING.
THE HREF IS IN THE MIDDLE BEING THAT IT COMBINES THESE MODELS.
IT KEEPS THICK, CONVECTION LIMITING CLOUDS DRAPED OVER THE AREA
TODAY, BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT DOES SHOW MOST OF IT EXITING BY
5PM. QPF WITH THIS MODEL IS MODERATE AND REASONABLE BETWEEN
0.25" AND 0.75".
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FEEL REMINISCENT TO LATE
SPRING OR EARLY SUMMER AS OPPOSED TO LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE PROJECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO THE
MID 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN THE LOWLANDS. ONE LIMITING FACTOR
WOULD BE THE CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY IMPEDE THIS DRASTIC WARMTH.
WOULD HAVE TO RELY ON AFTERNOON CLEARING THAT MAY OCCUR.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AMID A THERMAL RIDGE ARRIVING
FROM THE SOUTH, WITH MODEL CONFIDENCE REACHING 90% TO 95% OF
REACHING OR EXCEEDING DAILY RECORD STATUS. FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES
COULD TO REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR MANY OF THE USUAL WARM SPOTS IN
THE LOWLANDS. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS ULTRA-SATURATED SOILS
FROM ALL OF THE RAIN.
SATURDAY WILL SHOWCASE WARMTH OF SIMILAR CALIBER TO FRIDAY, BUT
THE TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR ON
HOW WARM THE AREA ACHIEVES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
530 AM UPDATE...
SPC HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5) RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY WITH THEIR MORNING UPDATE. THIS RISK
ENCOMPASSES NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA; OUTSIDE OF OUR SOUTHWEST VA
COUNTIES, MCDOWELL COUNTY, AND THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1/5) RISK IS IN PLACE.
302 AM UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOMETIME
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A STOUT WARM SECTOR WILL LIE
ACROSS THE AREA, AS WILL TYPICAL SPRINGTIME WIND DYNAMICS(40-50
KNOTS OF SHEAR). THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
CERTAINLY ON THE TABLE. POSSIBLE RISKS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS,
SMALL HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
THE GFS WANTS TO BRING THIS FRONT THROUGH EARLY (1PM TO 3PM).
THIS MAY LIMIT STORM SEVERITY AND FLOODING RISK AS THIS TIMING
WOULD MOVE IT THROUGH FASTER, BUT THE DAMAGING WIND RISK WOULD
STILL BE OF CONCERN.
THE EURO GOES WITH A MUCH LATER TIMING OF 5PM-7PM. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR MORE INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO TAP INTO, PRE-FRONTAL
STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AND ROTATING STORMS/ISOLATED TORNADOES
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH HELICITY VALUES IN THE 100-300M/S RANGE.
THE CANADIAN IS THE SHOWS THE LATEST TIMING(5PM-10PM) AND
FAVORS A NOCTURNAL LINEAR OR QLCS SET-UP FEATURING PRIMARILY
DAMAGING WINDS. THE NAM12K SIDES CLOSER TO THE EURO WITH TIMING
SHOWING A LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ARRIVAL. THE BETTER
RESOLUTION WITH THE NAM HIGHLIGHTS THE TORNADO CONCERN WITH THIS
TIMING SHOWING DISCRETE CELLS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE WITH THE FRONT.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING, KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS RAIN SHIELD TODAY,
LEADING TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR WHEN TERMINALS WILL RETURN
TO VFR LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
TERMINALS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS (KHTS, KCRW, KCKB, KPKB) ARE
CURRENTLY OSCILLATING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. THERE IS WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND MIST ARE KEEPING VISIBILITIES IN THE
25SM RANGE, WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 800 AND 1,500 FEET
AGL. KEKN IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN LIFR WITH DENSE FOG. KBKW IS
HOLDING VFR AT A HIGHER ELEVATION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
LOWER CEILINGS AND SHOWERS REACH THEM BY ~12-14Z. PERIODS OF IFR
OR LIFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS TODAY.
MOST TERMINALS SHOULD TREND TOWARDS VFR AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
EXITS LATER TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL THEN SHIFT TO
RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR ANY SITES THAT SEE RAINFALL TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW'RLY AT MOST SITE, CALM IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY MOSTLY
SW'RLY. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY LIGHT, BUT MAY BE BREEZY AT
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. LLWS IS CODED INTO THE TAFS EARLY THIS
MORNING UNTIL WINDS PICK UP.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE
BETWEEN CATEGORIES FOR MANY SITES THIS MORNING. TIMING FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 03/05/26
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M H M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L M L H H H H M H M H H
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
---------------------------------------
FRIDAY, 3/6 | SATURDAY, 3/7 |
---------------------------------------
CRW | 80 / 80 (1956) | 80 / 81 (2009) |
HTS | 81 / 81 (1956) | 80 / 82 (1983) |
CKB | 74 / 83 (1983) | 77 / 77 (2009) |
PKB | 76 / 76 (1973) | 78 / 80 (2009) |
BKW | 76 / 75 (1910) | 75 / 74 (2009) |
EKN | 74 / 77 (1946) | 77 / 76 (2009) |
---------------------------------------.
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ007>011-017-
019-020.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
CLIMATE...LTC
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