158
FXUS61 KRLX 051706
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1206 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. IN THESE AREAS,
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TOP OF WHAT'S ALREADY FALLEN CAN EXACERBATE
OR LEAD TO NEW FLOODING ISSUES.
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOW IN EFFECT OVER THE AREA
TODAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE STRETCH OF WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SOME STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
2) VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. UNSEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER THEN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN OHIO WILL SHOW VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT. THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH SOUTHERN STREAMS OF MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY, WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY WITH
SUFFICIENT FORCING, WIND DYNAMICS, AND JUST A TOUCH OF INSTABILITY.
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS BEING OUTLOOKED BY SPC, WITH
THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A GREATER POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH WEAK
TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED. MLCAPE WILL RISE TO 400-600 J/KG
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH 40-60 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS BEEN SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THE PAST FEW DAYS, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCUR OVER THOSE SAME AREAS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
FLOODING. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED OVER THESE AREAS
THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.
WHILE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WON'T BE COMPLETELY DRY, RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE LOWER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND AS IT
TRACKS EASTWARD, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. A
SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE AGAIN NEXT WEEK INTO THE 70S AS A RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA. VISIBILITY CAN TEMPORARILY BE REDUCED TO IFR IN
DOWNPOURS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TODAY.
IFR DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE
BETWEEN CATEGORIES FOR MANY SITES THIS MORNING. TIMING FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H M H H H H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H M M H
CLIMATE
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WVZ007>011-017-019-020.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WVZ007>011-017-019-020.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
CLIMATE...
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