877
FXUS61 KRLX 060136
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
836 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
815 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA AT PRESENT WITH A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES
OF THUNDER HERE/THERE. ANY SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED, WITH JUST A
FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL EARLIER AND SPORADIC WIND GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH EAST OF CHARLESTON INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS A
LINE OF STORMS MOVED THROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
COURTESY OF LIFT VIA A LOW-LEVEL JET, VERY GRADUALLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHWEST
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO GIVEN THE VERY SATURATED SOILS
THERE, WITH FLOOD WARNINGS STILL IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES GIVEN ONGOING FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. THESE
LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN, WITH
FLOODING IMPACTS NOT ANTICIPATED FURTHER SOUTH/EAST. HAVE
REFINED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE OTHER MAIN UPDATE BEING
THE INSERTION OF PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA. GIVEN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVERNIGHT, ANY BRIEF BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
1105 AM UPDATE...
THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. IN THESE AREAS,
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TOP OF WHAT'S ALREADY FALLEN CAN EXACERBATE
OR LEAD TO NEW FLOODING ISSUES.
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOW IN EFFECT OVER THE AREA
TODAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE STRETCH OF WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SOME STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
2) VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. UNSEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER THEN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN OHIO WILL SHOW VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT. THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH SOUTHERN STREAMS OF MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY, WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY WITH
SUFFICIENT FORCING, WIND DYNAMICS, AND JUST A TOUCH OF INSTABILITY.
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS BEING OUTLOOKED BY SPC, WITH
THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A GREATER POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH WEAK
TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED. MLCAPE WILL RISE TO 400-600 J/KG
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH 40-60 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS BEEN SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THE PAST FEW DAYS, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCUR OVER THOSE SAME AREAS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
FLOODING. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED OVER THESE AREAS
THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.
WHILE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WON'T BE COMPLETELY DRY, RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE LOWER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND AS IT
TRACKS EASTWARD, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. A
SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE AGAIN NEXT WEEK INTO THE 70S AS A RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER HERE/THERE
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOCATIONS, WITH
A GRADUAL SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. THIS TREND CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY, WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
IN TERMS OF RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY VFR AT PRESENT WILL TRANSITION
TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR LATER TONIGHT WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT, WITH MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
BKW WILL BE THE EXCEPTION, REMAINING VFR. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
(QUICKEST SOUTH, SLOWEST NORTH), WITH WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED BY
LATE AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR VSBY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS.
CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST DEPENDING ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF RAIN. PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD RESULT IN LOWER VSBY THAN
IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M H M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/STORMS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
---------------------------------------
FRIDAY, 3/6 | SATURDAY, 3/7 |
---------------------------------------
CRW | 78 / 80 (1956) | 80 / 81 (2009) |
HTS | 80 / 81 (1956) | 80 / 82 (1983) |
CKB | 73 / 83 (1983) | 76 / 77 (2009) |
PKB | 76 / 76 (1973) | 77 / 80 (2009) |
BKW | 74 / 75 (1910) | 74 / 74 (2009) |
EKN | 73 / 77 (1946) | 76 / 76 (2009) |
---------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ007>011-017-019-020.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW/26
AVIATION...GW
CLIMATE...GW
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