937
FXUS61 KRLX 060658
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
158 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS WERE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING
RAIN ACTIVITY FOR TODAY. OTHER THAN THAT, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LOT DRIER TODAY WITH LESS ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THEN
FOCUS SHIFTS TO A POSSIBLE ACTIVE DAY FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WHERE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE STORMS THAT COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS, AND A POSSIBLE
TORNADO OR TWO AND/OR HAIL.
2) A WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE GOING INTO SUNDAY THEN IT WILL
MODERATE AND COMMENCE ANOTHER WARMING TREND ONCE AGAIN, BUT
WILL RISE VERY GRADUALLY FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.
3) ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA BY MIDWEEK WITH
POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TODAY WILL BE A LOT LESS ACTIVE WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AN
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER OR RUMBLE WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL HOWEVER OUTSIDE ANY
CONVECTION THAT MAY POP UP WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MAINTAINING A FAIRLY DECENT DAY.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY WHERE SPC HAS US UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE REGION BY LATE MORNING AND SPREAD
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM FOR THE DAY
BY FAR, THIS WILL FUEL THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL HAVE A LOT OF
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF DCAPE AND MOIST PROFILES TO PROMOTE DOWNBURSTS
AND SUBSEQUENTLY DAMAGING WIND.
A POSSIBLY TORNADO OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE COLD
FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WHERE A FEW
SPINUPS COULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAIL COULD ALSO
BE A POSSIBILITY IN SEVERE STORMS THAT LAST LONGER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WARMER THAN USUAL TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE A STRONG WARMING
TREND GOING INTO SUNDAY AT WHICH POINT THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL ADVECT IN COOLER WEATHER FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ONLY BACK TO ABOVE
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTER SUNDAY, A GRADUALLY
TREND BACK TO WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE GOING THOUGH THE REST THE
WORK WEEK, BUT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA BY MIDWEEK.
ALTHOUGH NOT LOOKING AS STRONG AS THE ONE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY,
THIS ONE COULD STILL PROMOTE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OUT MIDWEST WHERE SPC HAS
A SLIGHT RISK AREA ALREADY DRAWN UP FOR TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
NEARS THE AREA FOR A WEDNESDAY TIME OF ARRIVAL. THIS COULD
IMPACT THE AREA WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY UNDER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SEVER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT
THIS FAR OUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT FOR A MORE
PRECISE TIMING AND HOW THE SEVERE THREAT WILL ACTUALLY TURN OUT
AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF FOG AND /OR LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE SITES WHERE PREVIOUSLY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED. THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE WHETHER OR NOT VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL TAKE
PLACE WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND, HOWEVER ANY BREAKS IN
COVERAGE WILL PROMOTE QUICK FOG DEVELOPMENT AND/OR LOW STRATUS.
VIS WILL LIKELY VARY FROM TAFS AS PATCHY DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SITES IN THE LATE MORNING. THEREAFTER,
CLOUDS WILL BREAK OUT AND LIFT TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY CLEAR OUT ALLOWING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.
WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR A FEW THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND ALLOW FOR
SOME INSTABILITY TO BUILD. THIS MAY AFFECT A SITE OR TWO WITH
TEMPORARY MVFR RESTRICTIONS OR WORSE UNDER HEAVY SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE MORNING COULD
RESULT IN LOWER VISIBILITY THAN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M H M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS/STORMS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ007>011-017-019-020.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ007>011-017-019-
020.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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