503
FXUS61 KRLX 061749
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1249 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS REFINED THE ARRIVAL TIMING OF A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2 PM AND 4
PM IN OUR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. THE TORNADO AND HAIL THREAT HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO FOCUS ON SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA, WHERE SEMI-DISCRETE STORM MODES ARE MORE PLAUSIBLE.
RAINFALL EXPECTATIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS WITH SATURATED SOILS IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
2. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT A FEW
TORNADOES AND ISOLATED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
3. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA DUE TO
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLOW-MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS OVER SATURATED
SOILS.
4. A COOLING TREND ARRIVES SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A DEPARTING ATLANTIC RIDGE AND
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN AN
ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS
TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE LOWLANDS AND
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE VALUES ARE ROUGHLY
25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATE NORMALS FOR EARLY MARCH
(NORMAL CRW: 51F). LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY MILD, GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 60S, NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. GIVEN WARM TEMPERATURES, WILL BE ABLE TO
REALIZE SOME INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AGITATED CUMULUS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, BEST CHANCES SOUTH.
SATURDAY WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF RECORD HEAT BEFORE THE
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING THE LOW 80S
IN THE LOWLANDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON
SATURDAY, DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TIMING
REMAINS CRITICAL FOR SEVERE INTENSITY; CURRENT MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ENTERING SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 4 PM ASSOCIATED
WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. KINEMATICS ARE ROBUST WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS. WARM ADVECTION IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR
COULD PRODUCE SOME EARLY CONVECTION THAT LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING
FARTHER EAST, BUT CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR MLCAPE TO REACH
500-1000J/KG ACROSS SE OH AND NW WV BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY STORM MODE WILL BE LINEAR WITH BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, 0-1KM SRH NEAR 100 M2/S2 AND
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-
END TORNADO THREAT, PARTICULARLY IF ANY SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS CAN
DEVELOP IN THE EXPECTED BROKEN LINE OF STORMS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO
OR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. HAIL LIKEWISE WILL BE A LESSER
CONCERN, WITH ANY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LIMITED TO SEMI-
DISCRETE CONVECTION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SOILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAIN
SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL. WHILE QPF TOTALS MAY ONLY
AVERAGE 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES, THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL
INTENSITY (>1 INCH/HOUR) AND STORM TRAINING BEFORE THE LINE
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE RAISES SOME FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS MAINLY
ACROSS SE OH. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IF CONFIDENCE
IN TRAINING STORM PLACEMENT INCREASES.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIRMASS BY SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS AND 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS, MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS. THIS COOL-DOWN IS BRIEF, AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS
OVER THE GULF BY MONDAY, INITIATING A RAPID RETURN TO UNSETTLED
AND WARMER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
CHANCES AT BKW/CRW. HAVE INCLUDED MAINLY VCSH/VCTS TO ADDRESS
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT ANY GIVEN FIELD.
A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING TO 40 KTS AT H850 WILL CREATE A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR HEADING INTO DAYBREAK
ON SATURDAY. WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND VERY MILD
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, SHOULD NOT SEE NEARLY AS MUCH FOG
TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION COULD APPROACH CRW/BKW/EKN/CKB
THIS AFTERNOON, AMDS MAY BE NEEDED. ELEVATED CONVECTION
SATURDAY MORNING COULD ALSO AFFECT THE TERMINALS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AFTER 20Z SATURDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST AS A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
THROUGH. EXPECT BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS WITHIN
STORMS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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