993
FXUS61 KRLX 072145
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
445 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
440 PM UPDATE...
AT PRESENT, A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE LINE
IS OUTFLOW DOMINATED CURRENTLY, LEADING TO A LOWER THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GOING FORWARD, BUT STILL NON-ZERO. THE MAIN
HAZARD CONTINUES TO BE STRONG WIND GUSTS. HAVE UPDATED POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING TO REPRESENT A SLIGHTLY QUICKER PACE
EASTWARD OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
ADDITIONALLY, HAVE CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA.
127 PM UPDATE...
ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 25 FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH 8 PM. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR INSTANCE OF LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
1245 PM UPDATE...
REFINED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TIMING TO REFLECT A SLIGHTLY EARLIER
POTENTIAL ONSET. ADDED SOME DETAILS STRONGER SYSTEM FOR
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERE POTENTIALLY FOLLOWED BY
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1. RECORD WARMTH FUELING A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA FROM 1 PM TO MIDNIGHT TODAY.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT A NON-ZERO
TORNADO AND HAIL THREAT ALSO EXISTS.
2. A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXISTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA DUE
TO HIGHLY SATURATED SOILS.
3. COOLER SUNDAY, BUT WARMTH RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING.
4. SHARPLY COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGS ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. TREACHEROUS TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE AS
RECENT RAINS HAVE WASHED AWAY ROAD SALT TREATMENTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RECORD WARMTH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS IS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A BROKEN LINE OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ALREADY ACTIVE
TO THE WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERNMOST
COUNTIES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM, PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND EXITING BY
MIDNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
THIS LINE REVEAL A STRONGLY SHEARED ATMOSPHERE, WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 40KTS AND SFC-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
APPROACHING 100 M2/S2. HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR
A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE OUTBREAK IS THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE.
MODEST INSTABILITY IS PRESENT, WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY
PEAKING BETWEEN 700 AND 1000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH A PREDOMINANTLY
LINEAR STORM MODE, THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SURGES OR BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE
LINE.
WHILE THE LINEAR MODE DOMINATES, IF ANY SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS
MANAGE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED WITHIN LOCAL WEAKNESSES IN THE LINE
OR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF IT, A LOCALIZED TORNADO OR HAIL THREAT
COULD EMERGE. THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA
WHERE THE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS BEST OVERLAP.
AS THE LINE PROGRESSES EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER LATER THIS
EVENING, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND FADING INSTABILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL GENERALLY
LIMIT OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS TO A MODEST 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.
HOWEVER, ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA DICTATE A HEIGHTENED HYDROLOGIC
AWARENESS. SOILS ACROSS THIS NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAIN EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST AND SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL.
ANY LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 1 INCH IN A SHORT
TIMEFRAME WILL LIKELY START TO PRODUCE AT LEAST NUISANCE RENEWED
FLOODING. WHILE THE FAST STORM MOTION SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED
FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH, COULDN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ONE OR TWO
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES MATERIALIZE OVER THESE COMPROMISED BASINS.
AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF MAINLY LIGHT, POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT, LARGELY
EXITING TO THE EAST BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN
THE 50S AND 60S. THIS RESPITE IS SHORT-LIVED, AS ANOMALOUS
RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK, SENDING HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING BACK NEAR THE 80 DEGREE
MARK BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A RETURN TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER POTENT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENT TIMING BRINGS THIS CONVECTIVE LINE
INTO THE AREA AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. WHILE DYNAMIC FORCING
APPEARS ROBUST, MEDIOCRE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY CAUSE
INSTABILITY TO FADE RAPIDLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER COMING DAYS, BUT
THE EVENING ARRIVAL CURRENTLY WOULD HELP TO MITIGATE HIGHER-END
EVENT POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COLD FRONT, A DRASTIC AIR MASS
CHANGE WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CHANGING PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE VERY WARM
ANTECEDENT GROUND CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS,
TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY BECOME DISPROPORTIONATELY SIGNIFICANT. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
EFFECTIVELY WASHED AWAY ANY LINGERING ICE ABATEMENT MATERIALS,
SUCH AS ROCK SALT, FROM TRAVEL SURFACES. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
WELL BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, UNTREATED MOUNTAIN ROADS
COULD BECOME SLICK AND TREACHEROUS EVEN WITH SUB-ADVISORY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL
PERSIST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE
TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 19Z AND 04Z. EXPECT BRIEF
BUT SIGNIFICANT IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, ALONG WITH ERRATIC AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS, AS THESE STORMS PASS. HAVE UTILIZED TEMPO GROUPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY WINDOWS FOR TERMINAL IMPACTS.
BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE, ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
CROSSES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, AND
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AND
LIFT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST AT THE TERMINALS WITH STRONGER/WEAKER LINE
SEGMENTS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EST 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP/GW
AVIATION...JP
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