848
FXUS61 KRLX 082326
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
726 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADVERTISES THE MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER OF THIS
WEEK, WITH A COLD FRONT SET TO BRING POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SEVERE
AND WINTER WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TEMPERATURES START OFF COOLER IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT,
BUT WILL QUICKLY MODERATE EACH DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, HOWEVER NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
2. NEXT SHOT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES ON
WEDNESDAY AMID UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN FORM AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND VENTURE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME.
3. LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX AS COLDER AIR USHERS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. TRAVEL
COULD BECOME IMPACTED DUE TO POSSIBLE HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS
THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AMID A PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BUT THE NEW
WORK WEEK WILL KICK OFF A RENEWED WARMING TREND UNDER THE GUISE
OF NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
STRETCHES INTO THE 60S AND 70S ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF THE 80S FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A MIDWEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE, ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, WILL USHER COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TUMBLE DOWN TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK,
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION FROM LINGERING RAIN OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE FOR FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING SLIDES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
AND ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE COUNTRY, SETTING UP
ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
UNSEASONABLE WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MENTIONED IN KEY MESSAGE
1 WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
ENCROACHING DISTURBANCE ALONGSIDE AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE
USHERED UP FROM THE SOUTH. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAY A KEY ROLE ON WHERE SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH ANOTHER
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS POSSIBLY TRACKING THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THIS, BUT IT HAS
ALREADY GRABBED THE ATTENTION OF THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER,
WHO HAS PAINTED A BROAD AREA FROM THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
DOWN INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION IN THEIR DAY 4 OUTLOOK. ONE
VARIABLE THAT COULD TARNISH STRONG THERMAL HEATING AND SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORNING PRECIPITATION THAT CENTRAL
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HINTS AT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ACTIVE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHETHER IN THE FORM OF
PURE RAIN OR A LINE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, WILL TRANSITION
OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WANES QUICKLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WINTER'S BRIEF RETURN COULD STIR UP TROUBLE SPOTS
ON SURFACES DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN HOW SOIL
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING EACH DAY AMID RECENT UNSEASONABLY WARM
AFTERNOONS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO STICK, BUT CERTAINLY
BEARS MONITORING AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DESPITE CLEARING, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS NOT WELL SCOURED OUT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT, STRATOCUMULUS MAY FORM OVERNIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, AND COULD GIVE RISE TO MVFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, MOST LIKELY AT BKW AND CRW. VALLEY FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAY BE
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG FORMATION. THE STRATOCU WILL
ALSO BE A HINDRANCE TO FOG FORMATION IF THERE IS ENOUGH OF IT.
ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z MONDAY, AND THE
STRATOCU WILL MIX INTO A VFR FEW/SCT CUMULUS FIELD BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY THEN VANISH ALTOGETHER.
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT, AND THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING, BECOMING A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/MIST AND STRATOCU MAY VARY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H M H M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND IN MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...TRM
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