179
FXUS61 KRLX 090553
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
153 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEW POINTS/RH FOR TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MUCH DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
- 2) A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY MAY
PROVIDE LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED STORM.
- 3) SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. PRECIPITATION THEN TRANSITIONS TO
SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD, WITH WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY DEPARTING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. ONCE AFTERNOON MIXING COMMENCES, EXPECT RH VALUES TO PLUMMET
INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE, ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS
IN THE TEENS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FIRE ISSUES DUE TO RECENT
RAINS, HOWEVER, FUELS WILL START TO DRY OUT ACROSS THE AREA UNDER
THESE CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT. FRONT LOOKS TO GENERALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ADVECT ABOVE NORMAL PW VALUES INTO THE AREA, WITH
LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, MAINLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT WOULD GET HIT REPETITIVELY, AS OVERALL FLOW/SPEED OF
STORMS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD ISSUES. AS
FAR AS SEVERE THREAT, IT'S STILL RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
BY THE TIME THE FRONT COMES IN, IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY
WILL BE WANING. IN ADDITION, THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN
COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ITS EFFECT ON THE
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, WITH THE OVERALL STRONG DYNAMICS/SHEAR
EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM, THERE DOES EXIST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
DURING THE PERIOD, AND SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT PARTS OF THE AREA
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS AREAS.
IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH AT LEAST NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THIS POINT, EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS DUE TO
WINTRY WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE GENERALLY 09Z THROUGH 12Z IN DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, MAINLY AFFECTING SITE KEKN. OTHERWISE, AREA OF
MVFR CIGS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHERN
WV MAY AFFECT SITES KBKW GENERALLY 09-13Z.
OTHERWISE, AFTER 13Z, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS, WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE TEENS ARE
POSSIBLE GENERALLY 16Z THROUGH 22Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/MIST AND STRATOCU MAY VARY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 03/09/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND IN MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page