666
FXUS61 KRLX 091754
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
154 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEW POINTS/RH FOR TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MUCH DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
- 2) A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY MAY
PROVIDE LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED STORM.
- 3) SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. PRECIPITATION THEN TRANSITIONS TO
SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD, WITH WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY DEPARTING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. ONCE AFTERNOON MIXING COMMENCES, EXPECT RH VALUES TO PLUMMET
INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE, ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS
IN THE TEENS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FIRE ISSUES DUE TO RECENT
RAINS, HOWEVER, FUELS WILL START TO DRY OUT ACROSS THE AREA UNDER
THESE CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT. FRONT LOOKS TO GENERALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ADVECT ABOVE NORMAL PW VALUES INTO THE AREA, WITH
LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, MAINLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT WOULD GET HIT REPETITIVELY, AS OVERALL FLOW/SPEED OF
STORMS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD ISSUES. AS
FAR AS SEVERE THREAT, IT'S STILL RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
BY THE TIME THE FRONT COMES IN, IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY
WILL BE WANING. IN ADDITION, THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN
COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ITS EFFECT ON THE
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, WITH THE OVERALL STRONG DYNAMICS/SHEAR
EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM, THERE DOES EXIST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
DURING THE PERIOD, AND SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT PARTS OF THE AREA
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS AREAS.
IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH AT LEAST NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THIS POINT, EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS DUE TO
WINTRY WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. CIGS
LOWER LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
MVFR TO NORTHERN TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO
MEDIUM IN THIS OCCURRING. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN VERY BRIEF MVFR VSBY IF THEY WERE TO MOVE OVER A
TERMINAL.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PERIOD (UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY). OCCASIONAL BREEZES OF 15-20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE SAME BEING THE CASE BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, BRIEF/MARGINAL LLWS CANNOT
ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT TONIGHT AT A FEW SITES, BUT GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE, HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT, MEDIUM THEREAFTER.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LLWS COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR TONIGHT AT A FEW
SITES. MVFR CIGS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND IN MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...GW
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