058
FXUS61 KRLX 092355
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
755 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEW POINTS / RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS
GIVEN DIURNAL MIXING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MUCH DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
- 2) A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY MAY
PROVIDE LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED STORM.
- 3) SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES / CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITATION THEN TRANSITIONS TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DRY AND SUNNY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION. RETURN FLOW RESULTS IN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY (BY ~ 15-20 DEGREES) AS ANOTHER
WARMING TREND COMMENCES. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
LOWER DEW POINTS VIA DIURNAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RH
VALUES IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, LOWER IN SOME
CASES. OCCASIONAL BREEZES OF 15-20 MPH WILL START TO DRY OUT
THE FINE FUELS ACROSS THE REGION, BUT GIVEN RECENT RAINS, NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FIRE ISSUES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ISOLD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY (WEST) INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE LIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY GENERALLY REMAINS BETWEEN 20-40 PERCENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AMID PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (LOW/MID 70S LOWLANDS,
60S MOUNTAINS). OCCASIONAL BREEZES OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN, BUT RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER GIVEN CONTINUED RETURN
FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A DEVELOPING /
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT
WILL MOVE TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IN THE
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS BRINGS A
RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE SEVERE. AN INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON VIA FORCING FROM A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING EAST INTO THE AREA. WHILE A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WITH THE
SECOND ROUND OF ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING TIMEFRAME AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH AN ANTICIPATED LINE OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS LINE IS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN STRONG WINDS ALOFT AS THIS LINE MOVES
THROUGH, CURRENTLY PROGGED AT 50-60 KTS AT H850, WHICH COULD BE
BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WHILE A MUCH LOWER THREAT, AN
ISOLATED SPIN UP IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. OVERALL,
THE HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
GIVEN THE ARRIVAL TIME AND ANTICIPATED GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH
MOVEMENT FURTHER EASTWARD. FINALLY, GIVEN THE FAST ANTICIPATED
MOVEMENT OF THE STORM ACTIVITY, THE THREAT FOR HYDRO ISSUES
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WHERE A SLUSHY HALF INCH TO AN INCH COULD BE POSSIBLE
IN A FEW LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE RECENT WARMTH AND WET ANTECEDENT
GROUND FROM RAIN, MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, AND MAINLY
ABOVE 3500 FEET. DRIER WEATHER QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AMID MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MOISTENING SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS PERIOD WILL BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES AGAIN ON TUESDAY WHILE BRINGING IN PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE PATCHY STRATOCU COULD RESULT IN MVFR
CEILINGS AT TIMES ON TUESDAY, MOST LIKELY AT PKB AND CKB.
IN ADDITION, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY COULD RESULT IN VERY BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITY IF THEY WERE TO MOVE OVER A TERMINAL.
ADDITIONALLY, BRIEF/MARGINAL LLWS CANNOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT A FEW SITES, GIVEN MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR THE TIME BEING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT, MEDIUM THEREAFTER.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LLWS COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR AT A FEW SITES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS FURTHER
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, STRONGER GUSTS COULD MIX TO THE
SURFACE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY MAY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY DIRECTLY IMPACT ONE OR MORE TERMINALS ON
TUESDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 03/10/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND IN MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...TRM
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