961
FXUS61 KRLX 100541
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
141 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST THINKING REMAINS UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED STORM. RH WILL NOT BE
AS LOW TODAY DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.
- 2) SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. PRECIPITATION THEN TRANSITIONS TO
SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD, WITH WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA VIA FORCING FROM A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. FRONT
LOOKS TO GENERALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL ADVECT ABOVE NORMAL PW VALUES INTO THE AREA, WITH LOCALIZED
WATER ISSUES NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, MAINLY IN LOCATIONS
THAT WOULD GET HIT REPETITIVELY, AS OVERALL FLOW/SPEED OF STORMS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD ISSUES. AS FAR AS
SEVERE THREAT, BY THE TIME THE FRONT COMES IN, IT APPEARS MUCH OF
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING. HOWEVER, WITH THE OVERALL STRONG
DYNAMICS/SHEAR EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM, THERE IS A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT DURING THE PERIOD, AND SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT PARTS OF
THE AREA FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS AREAS.
IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH AT LEAST NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS DUE TO WINTRY WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY 16Z TO
00Z, WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TEENS GENERALLY 16Z
TO 21Z.
ADDITIONALLY, BRIEF/MARGINAL LLWS CANNOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AT A FEW SITES, GIVEN MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, HAS BEEN LEFT OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LLWS COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR AT A FEW SITES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS FURTHER
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, STRONGER GUSTS COULD MIX TO THE
SURFACE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 03/10/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND IN MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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