886
FXUS61 KRLX 241817
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
217 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE. DRIER DEW POINTS AND RHS
EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY INCREASING FIRE WEATHER RISK. NO
CHANGE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN STORE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASED RISK OF FIRE
WEATHER DANGERS WILL BE PROMINENT IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN ARID
DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- 2) A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING CHANCES FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE VICINITY TODAY AND PART OF
TOMORROW REINFORCING DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE LOWLANDS. WEDNESDAY WILL PROVE MUCH
WARMER AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PICKS UP BY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY'S
HIGHS ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE LOWLANDS. RAIN CHANCES
DO NOT RETURN UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR VERY EARLY THURSDAY.
THERE IS INCREASED RISK FOR WILDFIRE START THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S. SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON COULD
SEE DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS, PRIMARILY ACROSS OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND THE MOUNTAINS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S AS A RESULT WHICH INCREASES THE RISK OF BRUSH
FIRES TO START. SOME RH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT PERCENTAGES WILL STILL BE LOW IN THE 20S AND 30S.
LUCKILY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WHICH MITIGATES THE RISK NEED FOR
RED FLAG WARNINGS OR FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS. FUEL STICK
MOISTURES ARE ALSO ADEQUATE ENOUGH TODAY FROM RAINFALL THIS
PAST WEEKEND. STILL, CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH BURNING OUTSIDE OR
USING MACHINERY THAT THROWS SPARKS TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CHANCES EXIST FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH AND A 500MB DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH DUE TO OVERNIGHT ARRIVAL AND
LACK OF OTHER PARAMETERS.
THE WARM FRONT IS PROJECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY PROVIDING US WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES SWELL INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS WITH A GENEROUS WARM SECTOR. THERE ARE CHANCES(35-50%)FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THIS FRONT.
THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS OUR OHIO AND KENTUCKY COUNTIES AS WELL AS
MOST OF WEST VIRGINIA OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND
MOUNTAINS PAINTED IN A MARGINAL RISK(LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT RISK
RESIDES JUST TO OUR WEST.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS MODELS AND
PARAMETERS SUGGEST A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL BE THE LIKELY
STORM MODE. SMALL HAIL OR ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH SPRINGTIME WIND DYNAMICS AND LAPSE RATES, BUT CURRENTLY
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THESE HAZARDS OCCURRING DUE TO PROJECTED
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT TIMING.
THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL RISK(LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AS TRAINING
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY ONLY EXPECTING LOCALIZED ISSUES,
MOSTLY AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE DUE TO DRIER CONDITIONS IN PLACE
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS VARY SOME ON A GIVEN SOLUTION CURRENTLY WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING THE SLOWEST TIMING(OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY). THIS
WOULD LIKELY EQUATE TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL/TRAINING STORM
OUTCOME AS OPPOSED TO SEVERE WEATHER. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER BRINGING THE BROKEN LINE THROUGH IN THE
EVENING(6PM-9PM). THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND AMBITIOUS,
KEEPING A STOUT WARM SECTOR IN PLACE WITH A LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING(4PM-8PM) TRAVERSAL TIME. THIS OUTCOME WOULD
PROVE TO HAVE MORE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
ALL THAT SAID, NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS
AT THIS TIME AS MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND OTHER MODELS ARE GOING
WITH LATE TIMING (8PM OR LATER). DAMAGING WINDS COULD STILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT THOUGH FOR AREAS IN THE MARGINAL
RISK WITH A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A
LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WOULD FOLLOW AS SLOWER MOVING, TRAINING
STORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW
TO SCT HIGH-LEVEL(18,000-25,000FT) CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY CROSS OVER
SOME SITES THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING SCT TO BKN TONIGHT. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO DRY AND
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ELEVATED ENOUGH TO VENT ANY FOG.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT(4-9KTS) AND VARY IN DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST SITES, EXCEPT FOR BKW, WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CALM WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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