614
FXUS61 KRLX 250959
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
559 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE. ALSO POLISHED UP TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS THIS MORNING.
223 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS
FOR THURSDAY EVENING, WITH MARGINAL RISKS FOR BOTH STILL
PAINTED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES. LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AMIDST THE ONSET OF CONVECTION MAY ONCE AGAIN SQUASH THE
SEVERITY THREAT IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO WHAT TOOK PLACE THIS
PAST SUNDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTS ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY. INCREASED RISK OF FIRE WEATHER DANGERS WILL BE
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ONGOING DRY THERMAL PROFILES
RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS.
- 2) A COLD FRONT SLATED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY MAY SERVE UP OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HOWEVER, TIMING OF STORMS APPROACHING
OUR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL POSE A CHALLENGE
FOR THE LONGEVITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOTHER DRY WEATHER DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TODAY, COURTESY OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE LIGHT
RADAR SIGNATURES ATTACHED, BUT HAVE NOT PROVEN TO BE REACHING
THE GROUND AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATION STATIONS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO DRY THERMAL PROFILES STILL HOVERING OVER THE REGION TODAY
AMID THE INFLUENTIAL SURFACE HIGH.
CENTRAL GUIDANCE DENOTES AN UPTICK IN DEW POINTS BY LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AMID THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH, USHERING IN
MOISTURE. STILL THINK ANOTHER DAY OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER WILL
FESTER INTO TODAY DESPITE THIS MOISTURE SURGE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN COALFIELDS WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOW 20S THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA, MINRH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ARE PROGGED FOR TODAY. WIND
INTENSITIES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TODAY TO NOT POSE CONCERNS FOR
FIRE SPREAD. CAUTION REMAINS ADVISED WITH BURNING OUTSIDE OR
USING MACHINERY THAT THROWS SPARKS TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
RENEWED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SLIDES DOWN INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE VENTURING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A COLD FRONT, THAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE FORECAST AREA, A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THURSDAY
MORNING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZING CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE MAIN EVENT LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
FEATURE PLACES THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH MANY SPOTS IN
THE TRI- STATE PROGGED TO REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS, COUPLED WITH AN ONGOING SURPLUS OF MOISTURE THAT WILL
YIELD DEW POINTS IN THE 50S/60S.
WHILE THE REGION WOULD BE PRIMED FOR SEVERE WEATHER, TIMING OF
STORMS ARRIVING INTO THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR TERRITORY COULD
ONCE AGAIN SPOIL THE OVERALL SEVERITY AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING PLAYS A FACTOR IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED THIS PAST SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND WILL MARCH DOWN INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THIS PARTICULAR
ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT HAS STRUGGLED TO ACHIEVE SEVERE
STRENGTH STORMS AS OF RECENTLY, AND SEEMS TO BE THE REASONING
BEHIND SPC'S DECISION TO RETAIN ONLY A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY. STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
HEIGHTENED ACROSS THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AND LESSEN THE FURTHER
SOUTH AND EASTWARD STORMS TRAVEL. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ACTIVITY, INCLUDING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TRAINING CELLS THAT
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOCAL HIGH WATER ISSUES.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO COMPLETE ITS SOUTHWARD JOURNEY
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH RAIN SLOWLY CLEARING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MAY ALSO YIELD A WET MIXTURE OF RAIN AND
SNOW LATE FRIDAY EVENING ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. DRY, ALBEIT COOLER, WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
AMID BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS RULE THE ROOST TODAY AMID DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE. CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
SERVE UP POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY, A COLD
FRONT DRAPED TO THE NORTH WEST WILL BEGIN TO IMPOSE MVFR
CEILINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. SUB-VFR CEILINGS LOOK
TO HOLD OFF WITHIN THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY,
BUT WILL QUICKLY FILL IN DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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