659
FXUS61 KRLX 251834
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
234 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
MODELS HAVE IRONED OUT MOST UNCERTAINTIES WITH THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT'S SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. TIMING STILL REMAINS A
MODERATE DISAGREEMENT BUT A LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SCENARIO
IS MOST LIKELY, SIMILAR TO THIS PAST SUNDAY'S SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) INCREASED FIRE WEATHER RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW RH
VALUES IN THE 20S AND 30S AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- 2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH OUR AREA. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN RISKS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST ALLOWING FOR A SMALL DISTURBANCE TO
MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY, BUT DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MANY LOCATIONS TODAY. THE LOWLANDS CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S AND THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID
60S. DEW POINTS WILL BE VERY DRY (20S AND 30S) WHICH WILL EQUATE
TO ARID RH VALUES IN THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT THERE
IS INCREASED RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS YESTERDAY'S
VERY DRY AFTERNOON HAS PARCHED FUEL STICK MOISTURES. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED OUTSIDE IF
BURNING OR OPERATING MACHINERY. CONSULT LOCAL BURN LAWS AS SOME
JURISDICTIONS HAVE BURN BANS IN THE SPRING. RHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RECOVER OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WARM FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AND OVER
THE AREA BY AFTERNOON LEADING TO A HEALTHY WARM SECTOR AS THE
LOWLANDS WILL REACH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW MORNING WITH
THIS WARM FRONT.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SPAWN SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS AREAS TO OUR WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MOVE OUR
WAY IN THE EVENING. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WNW AND TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS
FEATURE, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME HAIL OR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS CLIPPING
PERRY COUNTY, OHIO WHERE THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND AN
EARLIER POSSIBLE ONSET FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
NOT CURRENTLY SOLD ON A ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DUE TO THE
NOCTURNAL TIMING OF THIS EVENT, BUT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR
SOME LOCALIZED HYDRO ISSUES. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COLD FRONT
STALLING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
POSSIBLE TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. FFG
SUGGESTS THAT THE GROUND IS PRIMED TO HANDLE MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE RAINFALL WE RECEIVE DUE TO THE DRY SPELL YESTERDAY AND
TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH OR THREE-QUARTERS OF
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS NEARING AN INCH ACROSS
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER SCT TO BKN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT, BUT
WILL NOT BECOME MVFR CATEGORY UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AT
SUSTAINED 6 TO 12KTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. SOME
LLWS (220-230 DEGREE CROSSOVER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS) WAS ADDED AT
A FEW SITES WHERE WINDS MAY BE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. THIS IS MOSTLY
OF CONCERN FOR CRW, CKB, EKN, AND HTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF WINDS STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT THEN LLWS
IN THE TAFS WILL BE OBSOLETE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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