330
FXUS61 KRLX 270558
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
158 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLOWED TIMING OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FOR TODAY.
SHARPLY COLDER TONIGHT WITH AN AREA WIDE FREEZE, ANOTHER FREEZE
LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE
NORTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH.
2.) LINGERING MOISTURE MAY TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SHARPLY
COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY, LEADING TO AN AREA-
WIDE FREEZE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
3.) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHERE A HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED. AMOUNTS WILL
TAPER OFF FURTHER SOUTH, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AS THE FRONT BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE.
WHILE TOTALS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT, THIS RAINFALL WILL HELP TAKE
THE EDGE OFF RECENT DRY CONDITIONS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE EXTREMELY LIMITED, KEEPING RAINFALL RATES FAIRLY TAME. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE OHIO, KENTUCKY, AND WEST VIRGINIA TRI-STATE REGION EXTENDING
INTO THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS, BUT AGAIN WOULD EXPECT THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE BY THE
TIME THEY GET DOWN THERE RESULTING IN RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY TODAY WITH A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND AS COLDER AIR FILTERS DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, BUT LITTLE, IF
ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF
20 TO 25 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. BY
TONIGHT, A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN AREA-WIDE FREEZE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NO FORECAST ZONES ARE YET ELIGIBLE FOR FROST/FREEZE
PRODUCTS THUS NO FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THIS FREEZE. THOSE WITH EARLY EMERGENT VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE
STEPS TO PROTECT IT FROM THE COLD BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTER AN ACTIVE END TO THE WORK WEEK, THE WEEKEND WILL SHAPE UP
TO BE PLEASANT AMID HIGH PRESSURE. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY, AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WAVES
OF WARM ADVECTION AND RELATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DURING THE NEXT WORK WEEK MAY SHOULD INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EVEN AMID HIGH HEIGHTS OVERALL. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION PEAKS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF
THE WORK WEEK, WITH PEAK AFTERNOON LOWLAND TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES AMID AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE SETTLED INTO
THE AREA ON PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT OF THE GULF.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING WILL BRING A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FT AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS, WITH
LOCALIZED DROPS BELOW 1000 FT AGL POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, MAINTAINING GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
THOUGH LOW STRATUS CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TERMINALS MAY BOUNCE EITHER SIDE OF 1000 FT
THIS MORNING. MAY NEED AMDS FOR TSRA.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 03/27/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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