749
FXUS61 KRLX 271425
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1025 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY... IN COORDINATION WITH THE KY
AGRICULTURAL WEATHER CENTER AND WFO JKL, WE HAVE INITIATED THE
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR THE 2026 CALENDAR YEAR FOR OUR
NORTHEAST KY COUNTIES AND, BY EXTRAPOLATION AND EMPLOYEE
OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING WEBCAMS, HAVE ALSO INITIATED THE
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR THE 2026 CALENDAR YEAR FOR OUR SOUTHERN
WV AND SW VA COUNTIES. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THESE AREAS.
UPDATE AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...
ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. UPDATED AVIATION
DISCUSSION.
AS OF 158 AM FRIDAY... SLOWED TIMING OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT FOR TODAY. SHARPLY COLDER TONIGHT WITH AN AREA WIDE
FREEZE, ANOTHER FREEZE LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH WARMER NEXT
WEEK WITH A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
THE NORTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH.
- 2) LINGERING MOISTURE MAY TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SHARPLY
COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY, LEADING TO AN
AREA- WIDE FREEZE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- 3) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK, ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...
HAVE INITIATED THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM AND ISSUED FREEZE
WARNINGS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTH IN
EARNEST AT THIS HOUR WITH ANAFRONTAL ACTIVITY NOTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LARGELY SEEING THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT, SO ANY HYDRO ISSUES
SHOULD BE LIMITED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHERE A HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED. AMOUNTS WILL
TAPER OFF FURTHER SOUTH, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AS THE FRONT BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE.
WHILE TOTALS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT, THIS RAINFALL WILL HELP TAKE
THE EDGE OFF RECENT DRY CONDITIONS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE EXTREMELY LIMITED, KEEPING RAINFALL RATES FAIRLY TAME. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE OHIO, KENTUCKY, AND WEST VIRGINIA TRI-STATE REGION EXTENDING
INTO THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS, BUT AGAIN WOULD EXPECT THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE BY THE
TIME THEY GET DOWN THERE RESULTING IN RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY TODAY WITH A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND AS COLDER AIR FILTERS DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, BUT LITTLE, IF
ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF
20 TO 25 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. BY
TONIGHT, A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN AREA-WIDE FREEZE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NO FORECAST ZONES ARE YET ELIGIBLE FOR FROST/FREEZE
PRODUCTS THUS NO FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THIS FREEZE. THOSE WITH EARLY EMERGENT VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE
STEPS TO PROTECT IT FROM THE COLD BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTER AN ACTIVE END TO THE WORK WEEK, THE WEEKEND WILL SHAPE UP
TO BE PLEASANT AMID HIGH PRESSURE. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY, AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WAVES
OF WARM ADVECTION AND RELATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DURING THE NEXT WORK WEEK MAY SHOULD INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EVEN AMID HIGH HEIGHTS OVERALL. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION PEAKS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF
THE WORK WEEK, WITH PEAK AFTERNOON LOWLAND TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES AMID AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE SETTLED INTO
THE AREA ON PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT OF THE GULF.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
MORNING WILL BRING A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FT AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS, WITH LOCALIZED
DROPS BELOW 1000 FT AGL POSSIBLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, MAINTAINING GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING THOUGH LOW STRATUS CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TERMINALS MAY BOUNCE EITHER SIDE OF 1000 FT
THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H M H M H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H M H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
WVZ005-013-024>026-033-034.
OH...NONE.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...TRM/JP
AVIATION...JP
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