146
FXUS61 KRLX 290557
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
157 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR LOW RH AND BREEZY WINDS FOR
TODAY. ADJUSTED DEW POINTS DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. STILL CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A COLD START THIS MORNING WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE
VALLEYS, FOLLOWED BY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
DRY FUELS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S, AND
BREEZY WINDS.
2.) UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
3). A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EMERGES TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A PRONOUNCED RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS CURRENTLY
ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING, CHARACTERIZED BY COLD AIR DRAINAGE
DROPPING VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID 20S WHILE RIDGES REMAIN
SLIGHTLY WARMER AMID LIGHT FLOW. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH MID-MORNING FOR THE ACTIVE GROWING SEASON AREAS
IN THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST TODAY WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER FROM H800 TO H700.
DIURNAL MIXING WILL TAP INTO THIS DRY AIR, AND GIVEN THE KNOWN
MOIST BIAS OF THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS DURING THE SPRING
SHOULDER SEASON, DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN MANUALLY ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. THIS YIELDS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING
INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS, YIELDING GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
GIVEN THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS OVERLAPPING WITH
CRITICALLY DRY 10 HOUR FINE DEAD FUELS, AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
EXISTS. IN COORDINATION WITH FORESTRY PARTNERS, A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS BEING ISSUED FOR ALL WEST VIRGINIA, KENTUCKY, AND
VIRGINIA COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OHIO MAY BE ADDED
INTO THE STATEMENT LATER THIS MORNING PENDING ADDITIONAL
COORDINATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORS OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST, A SUMMER-LIKE SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL ADVECT AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS
INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SOAR INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
THE METRO VALLEY AND LOWLAND AREAS, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE LATE
MARCH NORMALS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WITH THE INCREASING WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION, THE PATTERN
BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A MORE PRONOUNCED SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL, GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE, THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING COULD SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY REGARDING THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AND POTENTIAL
STALLING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON
WHETHER THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA OR STALLS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IF THE BOUNDARY STALLS, REPEATED ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION TRACKING OVER THE SAME NARROW VALLEYS OF THE
APPALACHIAN TERRAIN COULD POSE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
THREAT. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE, PRECLUDING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE MORNING, GENERALLY 8 TO 12
KTS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 20KTS DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
MIXING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 00Z
MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 03/29/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005-013-
024>026-033-034.
OH...NONE.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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