613
FXUS61 KRLX 300337
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1137 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWER CHANCES HAVE INCREASED TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE MOISTURE THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES, MORE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A FRONT.
- 2) A STRONG COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND BRINGS COOLER AIR BACK TO
THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN TRY TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL CREATE THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL GET BEFORE STALLING AND RETURNING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE BRINGING COOLER AIR
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A PERIOD OF LLWS EXPECTED, GENERALLY
05Z THROUGH 12Z ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KBKW.
OTHERWISE, -SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY, MAINLY AFTER
12Z. LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST, GENERALLY AFTER 15Z. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 20Z.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTS
TYPICALLY IN THE TEENS, GENERALLY 16Z THROUGH 22Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CESSATION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, DEPENDING UPON WHEN GUSTS MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. ARRIVAL OF MVFR CEILINGS MONDAY MAY VARY, AND SHOWERS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITY TO MVFR.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 03/30/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY, WITH THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR MAINLY LATE-DAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODIC MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...SL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page