870
FXUS61 KRLX 300413
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1213 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWER CHANCES HAVE INCREASED TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE MOISTURE THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES, MORE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A FRONT.
- 2) A STRONG COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND BRINGS COOLER AIR BACK TO
THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN TRY TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL CREATE THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL GET BEFORE STALLING AND RETURNING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE BRINGING COOLER AIR
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS
COULD CAUSE SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LLWS IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 03/30/26
UTC 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
EDT 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...RPY
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