625
FXUS61 KRLX 301757
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
157 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWER CHANCES HAVE INCREASED TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE MOISTURE THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES, MORE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A FRONT.
- 2) A STRONG COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND BRINGS COOLER AIR BACK TO
THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN TRY TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL CREATE THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL GET BEFORE STALLING AND RETURNING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE BRINGING COOLER AIR
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
POCKETS OF MVFR MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
SOME LOWER CEILINGS PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS LOWER
CLOUDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR AMID SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER.
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. A
PERIOD OF LLWS COULD DEVELOP WHERE GUSTS EASE OVERNIGHT, THEN WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP TUESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND DURATION OF MVFR TODAY AND LLWS
TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page