431
FXUS61 KRLX 302304
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
704 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS ALREADY DIMINISHED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
WEEK, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT NEARS.
- 2) A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER AIR BACK TO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONT STALLS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST US THROUGH
TUESDAY, THEN A LOW RIDING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH
THE FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
AND UPPER TROUGH MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE
PROJECTED TO HALT THE SOUTHWARD MOMENTUM OF THE FRONT AND THEN SEND
IT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM THEN CONTINUES ON ITS WAY, TREKKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ONCE AGAIN NUDGES THE FRONT TOWARDS
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT WARM, MOIST AIR UP INTO
THE AREA DURING THE WORK WEEK; HOWEVER, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS THE FRONT
DRAWS NEARER TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WHILE THE PARENT LOW MOVES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT, THEN DRIER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY IN THE
NEW WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER WARM IN THE DAYS PRECEDING THE
FRONT, WITH DAILY HIGHS LIKELY REACHING 70S TO 80S IN THE
LOWLANDS AND 60S TO LOW 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT SHOULD THEN USHER IN A NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR MASS
THAT RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, HOWEVER, A PERIOD OF LLWS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY 03Z TO 12Z, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTERWARDS, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO 20 KT RANGE.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY, MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY ACROSS SE OHIO,
WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS, AND ERRATIC/GUSTY
WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE ON TUESDAY MAY BE
GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...SL
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