638
FXUS61 KRLX 310419
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1219 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MAY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
WEEK, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT NEARS.
- 2) A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER AIR BACK TO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRY TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE STALLING, AND THEN RETURNING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK WEEK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED HOWEVER THAT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
CAN MAKE IT. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE BRINGING
COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.
MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT A CLIPPER WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN THE
COLD AIR ON TUESDAY. SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK, TIMING,
AND STRENGTH OF THIS CLIPPER WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN WHETHER
THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS HAVE ACCUMULATING SNOW.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD CAUSE SOME BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. IF SOME DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEY SIGHTS MANAGE TO DECOUPLE EARLY THIS MORNING,
THEN LLWS COULD BE AN ISSUE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MOUNTAIN VALLEY LLWS IS POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 03/31/26
UTC 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
EDT 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...RPY
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