801
FXUS61 KRLX 131733
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED NEAR TERM PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. MINOR UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO SURFACE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SOME VERY LOCALIZED RELIEF FROM RECENT DRYNESS
POSSIBLE.
2.) NEAR-RECORD HEAT WILL DOMINATE THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BENEATH A STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
3.) MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK, OFFERING LITTLE DROUGHT RELIEF. A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, FORCED BY A MID-LEVEL WAVE
TRAVERSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THIS
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS
SUBSTANTIAL DEW POINT DEPRESSION WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY, WITH MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING TRACE AMOUNTS OR NO
RAIN AT ALL. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITHIN THIS DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER WILL AUGMENT DOWNDRAFTS, SUPPORTING LOCALIZED SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH NEAR CONVECTIVE CORES, CONSISTENT WITH
CURRENT ASOS GUST REPORTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH OUTSIDE OF
PRECIPITATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND STAGNANT,
FEATURING A PERSISTENT H500 RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
A WARM, MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THIS REGIME WILL
YIELD UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, PARTICULARLY
ON WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND SATURDAY, CHALLENGING SEVERAL DAILY
RECORDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PROVIDE PERIODIC FORCING FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO MAXIMIZE ON
TUESDAY AT 30 TO 35KTS, WHICH COULD SUPPORT LOOSELY ORGANIZED
MULTICELL STRUCTURES. HOWEVER, THE MOST ROBUST FORCING AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SHUNTED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL OFFER
LITTLE RELIEF TO ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS AND PERHAPS A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN,
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING MID TO LATE WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH, FINE DEAD FUELS WILL REMAIN
RECEPTIVE TO FIRE.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A
ROBUST UPPER TROUGH ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST, DRIVING A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND DELIVERING A BETTER OPPORTUNITY
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS WITH GUSTS OF
20 TO 25KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DECOUPLING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. VERY BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER CORES, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF HTS/CRW REMAIN LOW. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER TO 040 TO 070 AGL WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR CEILINGS RETURN BY 06Z
TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VERY BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH A HEAVIER SHOWER.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER, BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLIMATE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL YIELD VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THROUGH SATURDAY. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
CHALLENGED ON SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
------------------------------------------------------------------------
TUE, 4/14 | WED, 4/15 | THU, 4/16 | FRI, 4/17 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 85 / 88 (2018) | 89 / 89 (1994) | 87 / 89 (2002) | 84 / 89 (1976) |
HTS | 86 / 87 (1941) | 89 / 87 (2024) | 86 / 89 (2024) | 86 / 87 (1976) |
CKB | 82 / 87 (2018) | 85 / 83 (1974) | 84 / 86 (2002) | 80 / 88 (1969) |
PKB | 84 / 85 (1941) | 87 / 84 (2024) | 86 / 88 (2002) | 83 / 89 (1976) |
BKW | 78 / 83 (2018) | 83 / 82 (2012) | 81 / 84 (2002) | 78 / 84 (1976) |
EKN | 80 / 85 (2018) | 84 / 81 (2012) | 83 / 85 (2012) | 78 / 87 (1976) |
------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------
SAT, 4/18 |
---------------------
CRW | 90 / 90 (2019) |
HTS | 90 / 89 (1955) |
CKB | 86 / 88 (1976) |
PKB | 88 / 91 (1976) |
BKW | 83 / 86 (1976) |
EKN | 85 / 88 (1976) |
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
CLIMATE...JP
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