444
FXUS61 KRLX 140706
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
306 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXPANDED BY
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO INCLUDE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RESUMES WITH RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD
HEAT, AND MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEK THAT OFFER LITTLE DROUGHT RELIEF. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH THEN
SHIFTS TO FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- 2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A SYSTEM CROSSES.
- 3) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT,
WHEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES.
- 4) THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BREAK THE SUMMER PATTERN BUT
PROVIDE MINIMAL DROUGHT RELIEF, WITH A STRETCH OF DRY, COOLER
WEATHER TO BEGIN THE NEW WEEK. MORNING FROST IS POSSIBLE.
- 5) MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY PERCENTILES WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 20S AND 30S THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS MOST DAYS, AND ONLY A COUPLE OF
OPPORTUNITIES FOR A CONDITIONAL WETTING RAIN, AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
AND THEN REBUILDING FRIDAY BEHIND A THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM, WILL RESUME THE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER, WITH RECORD TO
NEAR-RECORD HEAT THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH
UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHTS.
WEAK, FLAT MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL SOMEWHAT FOCUS
LOW COVERAGE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH ISOLATED
ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING. WITH A CORRIDOR OF INCREASED
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST, THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAN BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT AIDED BY WEST TO NORTHWEST SHEAR/CORFIDI VECTORS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND, GIVEN MARGINALLY ADEQUATE
SHEAR AMID LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMES
MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST,
PERHAPS EVEN ENTIRELY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES
CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE PRIMARY THREAT AGAIN BEING
DAMAGING WIND GIVEN THE MARGINALLY ADEQUATE SHEAR AMID LARGE
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS. FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY LOOK
MAINLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS IN THE NEXT TWO KEY MESSAGES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MORE STOUT MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THURSDAY AND CROSS THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THIS SHORT WAVE IS LIKELY TO GET CLOSE
ENOUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION. SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS A RESULT, BUT THE LOWER CAPE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE WITH
TIME, WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT GIVEN
THE INCREASED SHEAR.
EVEN WITH THE GREATER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND SEVERE THREAT,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
DROUGHT RELIEF. THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE MAY ALSO ABBREVIATED
HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT THURSDAY, AS WELL AS IN ITS WAKE ON
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM COULD AGAIN GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE INSTABILITY
FORECAST WILL AGAIN NEED WATCHED GIVEN INCREASED SHEAR AND IDEAL
TO SLIGHTLY LATER THAN IDEAL DIURNAL TIMING WITH THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL AGAIN PROVIDE MINIMAL DROUGHT RELIEF,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN ANOTHER DRY PERIOD TO FOLLOW, NEXT KEY MESSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
A PERIOD OF DRY, COOLER WEATHER WILL START THE NEW WEEK, AS
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A LARGE MID/UPPER-
LEVEL LONG WAVE BUT TRANSIENT TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. FROST IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNINGS, THE
LATTER/LATER OF WHICH IS WHEN THE HIGH IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
OVERHEAD.
KEY MESSAGE 5...
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY PERCENTILES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 20S AND 30S THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS MOST DAYS, AND ONLY A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES
FOR A CONDITIONAL WETTING RAIN, AFTERNOON AND EVENING FIRE
DANGER IS LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED. EVEN AMID THE UNSTABLE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONDITIONS THIS WEEK, DEW POINTS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST TO MID 50S TO LOW 60S NORTHWEST ARE
LOWER THAN TYPICAL SUMMER VALUES, WHICH RESULT IN THE LOW
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY PERCENTILES GIVEN THE
SUMMER-LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD, WITH PATCHY VFR
STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS 4-7 KFT, HIGHEST WITH THE PEAK
AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHT.
VCTS/CB WAS INCLUDED IN NORTHERN SITES PKB AND CKB FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING, BUT SURFACE-
BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THESE
SAME TWO LOCATIONS, PKB AND CKB (AND NEAR EKN) FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE GUSTY
AGAIN TODAY, INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AGAIN TONIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST, WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
PRECLUDE EARLY MORNING FOG FORMATION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE DIRECT IMPACTS ON
TAF SITES TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 04/14/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER,
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND LATE SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
------------------------------------------------------------------------
TUE, 4/14 | WED, 4/15 | THU, 4/16 | FRI, 4/17 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 86 / 88 (2018) | 89 / 89 (1994) | 87 / 89 (2002) | 84 / 89 (1976) |
HTS | 87 / 87 (1941) | 89 / 87 (2024) | 85 / 89 (2024) | 85 / 87 (1976) |
CKB | 83 / 87 (2018) | 86 / 83 (1974) | 83 / 86 (2002) | 79 / 88 (1969) |
PKB | 85 / 85 (1941) | 88 / 84 (2024) | 85 / 88 (2002) | 82 / 89 (1976) |
BKW | 80 / 83 (2018) | 84 / 82 (2012) | 82 / 84 (2002) | 79 / 84 (1976) |
EKN | 82 / 85 (2018) | 85 / 81 (2012) | 82 / 85 (2012) | 77 / 87 (1976) |
------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------
SAT, 4/18 |
---------------------
CRW | 89 / 90 (2019) |
HTS | 88 / 89 (1955) |
CKB | 86 / 88 (1976) |
PKB | 87 / 91 (1976) |
BKW | 83 / 86 (1976) |
EKN | 84 / 88 (1976) |
---------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
CLIMATE...TRM
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