704
FXUS61 KRLX 150533
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE. ALSO THE COMPLEX OF STORMS
RACING FROM EAST-CENTRAL OHIO EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLIER HAVE DISSIPATED.
751 PM UPDATE...
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE. ALSO MODIFIED SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
CURRENTLY MONITORING A COMPLEX OF STORMS RACING ACROSS WESTERN
OHIO THIS EVENING THAT MAY SKIRT BY OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD A WEAKENING
TREND FOR THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO IMPRESSIVE AS THEY REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
149 PM UPDATE...
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTH
TO INCLUDE THE METRO VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SLIGHT RISK NOW ENCOMPASSES A PORTION OF PERRY COUNTY. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO TIMING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR HAIL.
2.) RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HEAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND ISOLATED
90S POSSIBLE MID-WEEK.
3.) ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO
ANOMALOUS HEAT, AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE, BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ANTECEDENT DRY DEAD
FUELS.
4.) A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL END THE
HEATWAVE, BRINGING A PERIOD OF BENEFICIAL RAIN FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FROST BY MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS INCREASING TO MODEST LEVELS NEAR 35KT THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRAVERSES THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE. WHILE CAPPING REMAINS A CONCERN NEAR
H700, DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO ERODE INHIBITION ACROSS THE
NORTH. MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 500-1000
J/KG, SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS. GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A SUBSTANTIALLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WITH
SURFACE-TO-H500 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS, MARGINALLY SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT, THOUGH SEMI-DISCRETE
CELLS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST RISK AREA
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER SOUTH TO THE METRO VALLEY.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN AMPLIFIED LONG-WAVE PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED WITH A STRONG
590DAM RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
DAILY, ROUGHLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD HIGHS ARE
SPECIFICALLY CHALLENGED WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHEN
H850 TEMPERATURES PEAK BETWEEN 14C AND 16C, SUPPORTING SURFACE
VALUES NEAR 90. SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE THURSDAY COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, BUT PROBABLY TOUGH SLEDDING FOR ANYTHING TO SURVIVE
WHEN ENCOUNTERING THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSTANTIALLY DRY LOW
LEVELS. MAINTAINED WHAT ARE PROBABLY A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC CENTRAL
GUIDANCE POPS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
FIRE DANGER REMAINS ENHANCED THROUGH THE WEEK AS DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WORSEN WITH THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S
AND 30S THROUGH SATURDAY (MINUS TODAY). COMBINED WITH DAILY
SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH AND VERY DRY FINE FUELS, RAPID FIRE
SPREAD IN LEAF LITTER AND DEAD GRASSES IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY RAPIDLY INCREASED CANOPY COVERAGE ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS THIS WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S.. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS PEAKING IN THE 50-60
PERCENT RANGE. WHILE QPF HAS LOOKED LEAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS, THIS
SYSTEM OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN IN THE NEXT 7
DAYS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS, WITH H850 TEMPERATURES
DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL RETREAT TO
THE 60S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH AREAS SUBJECT TO COLD AIR
DRAINAGE AWAY FROM MAJOR RIVERS SEEING FROST POTENTIAL BY MONDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH A DRIER DAY IN STORE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL HOVER AROUND 5 KTS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, BEFORE BECOMING BREEZY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 TO 20KTS ONCE MORE DURING THE
DAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AGAIN TONIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY INDUCE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PRE-DAWN HOURS, BEFORE
MIXING THROUGH TO LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TODAY. FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST AGAIN TONIGHT, WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY INDUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AGAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR,
OR ITS NOCTURNAL TIMING MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 04/15/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER,
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND LATE SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CHALLENGED AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES (OBSERVED / RECORD HIGHS TUE)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
TUE, 4/14 | WED, 4/15 | THU, 4/16 | FRI, 4/17 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 84 / 88 (2018) | 89 / 89 (1994) | 86 / 89 (2002) | 84 / 89 (1976) |
HTS | 84 / 87 (1941) | 88 / 87 (2024) | 85 / 89 (2024) | 86 / 87 (1976) |
CKB | 81 / 87 (2018) | 87 / 83 (1974) | 84 / 86 (2002) | 79 / 88 (1969) |
PKB | 83 / 85 (1941) | 87 / 84 (2024) | 85 / 88 (2002) | 81 / 89 (1976) |
BKW | 77 / 83 (2018) | 82 / 82 (2012) | 80 / 84 (2002) | 78 / 84 (1976) |
EKN | 81 / 85 (2018) | 85 / 81 (2012) | 81 / 85 (2012) | 78 / 87 (1976) |
------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------
SAT, 4/18 |
---------------------
CRW | 89 / 90 (2019) |
HTS | 89 / 89 (1955) |
CKB | 85 / 88 (1976) |
PKB | 87 / 91 (1976) |
BKW | 84 / 86 (1976) |
EKN | 84 / 88 (1976) |
---------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...TRM
CLIMATE...JP/TRM
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