355
FXUS61 KRLX 151738
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
138 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ABLE TO CARRY INTO THE REGION THURSDAY GIVEN VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
SATURDAY. INCREASED FIRE DANGER THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) NEAR TO RECORD HEAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
2.) INCREASED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. DRY DEAD FUELS AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE
JOINED BY WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH ON THURSDAY.
3.) A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST ANY THREAT WILL CARRY.
4.) A SHARP COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL END THE HEAT WAVE,
BRINGING A PERIOD OF BENEFICIAL RAIN AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF TO FLORIDA, KEEPING THE REGION IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME. ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S
WITH A FEW SITES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING RECORD VALUES TODAY.
WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY WILL INTRODUCE CLOUD COVER
AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, THE RIDGE REBUILDS FRIDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PINNACLE OF THIS HEAT WAVE FOR THE
METRO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN COALFIELDS. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY NEAR RECORD LEVELS, BUT 90TH PERCENTILE STATISTICAL
DATA SUGGESTS ISOLATED 90F READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IF
PRECIPITATION STRUGGLES TO INVADE A VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN AT THE FOREFRONT THROUGH FRIDAY.
DESPITE THE RAPID GREEN-UP OF LIVE FUELS IN THE LOWLANDS,
10-HOUR FUEL MOISTURES AT RAWS SITES ARE CRITICALLY LOW, RANGING
FROM 7 TO 9 PERCENT. THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY WILL SEE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 30 AND 35
PERCENT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER, THURSDAY PRESENTS
A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. EXPECT
SOUTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH. EVEN WITH RH VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER (UPPER 30S) DUE TO
MOISTURE ADVECTION, THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND DRY DEAD FUELS
MAY NECESSITATE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS BETWEEN THE
SURFACE AND H500, WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND RESULT IN HIGH-BASED CELLS AS THEY PROGRESS
EASTWARD. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP, AND WITH DCAPE
POTENTIAL OVER 800 J/KG, ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT WILL POSE A RISK
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
WHERE FORCING IS STRONGEST AND STORMS WILL ENCOUNTER THE LEAST
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT IS CONFIRMED FOR THE WEEKEND. A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE PLAINS, DRIVING A STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. SYNOPTIC LIFT IS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WAVES. WHILE TIMING WILL DICTATE THE EXACT
SEVERE THREAT, CURRENT KINEMATICS WITH 0-6KM BULK WIND
DIFFERENCE OF 45 KTS SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM MODES SHOULD
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EMERGE.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR A
WETTING RAIN. STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
H85 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM +15C ON SATURDAY TO
-5C BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETREATING TO THE 50S AND 60S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT,
AREAS SUBJECT TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE AWAY COULD SEE FROST.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT AGL WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 8-12KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
-------------------------------------------------------
WED, 4/15 | THU, 4/16 | FRI, 4/17 |
-------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 88 / 89 (1994) | 85 / 89 (2002) | 83 / 89 (1976) |
HTS | 89 / 87 (2024) | 83 / 89 (2024) | 84 / 87 (1976) |
CKB | 86 / 83 (1974) | 83 / 86 (2002) | 78 / 88 (1969) |
PKB | 87 / 84 (2024) | 83 / 88 (2002) | 81 / 89 (1976) |
BKW | 83 / 82 (2012) | 79 / 84 (2002) | 77 / 84 (1976) |
EKN | 85 / 81 (2012) | 81 / 85 (2012) | 76 / 87 (1976) |
-------------------------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
CLIMATE...JP
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