442
FXUS61 KRLX 170012
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
812 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
810 PM UPDATE... NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION
124 PM UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL SPAWN A ROUND OF STORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.
- 2) ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
- 3) COOLER AND DRIER TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WILL
SWEEP A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING, AND INCREASING SHEAR, ON
THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KTS, WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY LOW, AND SPC HAS
PLACED MUCH OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS
EVENING, BUT AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT COULD KEEP A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS GOING, POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM BUT GENERALLY
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING BY THEN.
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EXITS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH REBOUNDING
HEIGHTS TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA, AND A MAINLY DRY, BUT CONTINUED
WARM FRIDAY ON TAP.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. BETTER INSTABILITY, AND DYNAMICS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR, LOOK TO
BE ACROSS SE OHIO AND THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE PERIOD,
AND SPC HAS PLACED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK
TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD DURING THIS TIME. THE GOOD NEWS WITH THIS
SYSTEM, IS MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD GET A WETTING RAIN OUT OF IT, AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY DAMPENING FIRE CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE AREA, WITH PERIODICALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF AND WITHIN THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, A BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTION
OR TWO ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION WITHIN ANY HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL GREATLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, THOUGH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF MIST OR FOG POSSIBLE WHERE WINDS CALM. MVFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS MAY MATERIALIZE IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, AS
WELL AS LOCATIONS WHERE FOG DOES FORM.
ANY RESTRICTIONS WOULD LIFT FRIDAY MORNING, GIVING WAY TO AREA
WIDE VFR AMID PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT, WESTERLY FLOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS OR AREAS OF
FOG MAY FORM THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page