880
FXUS61 KRLX 171735
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
135 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE MADE AT
THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
- 2) COOLER AND DRIER TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THERE DOES HOWEVER REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY CONCERNING
SEVERE POTENTIAL. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TODAY ACROSS
THE MIDWEST, SHOULD SPREAD AMPLE CLOUD COVER INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN AS TO ANY REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TODAYS CONVECTION, AND HOW FAR EAST THEY ARE
ABLE TO PROGRESS, THEREBY LIMITING INSTABILITY/SEVERE POTENTIAL BY
THE TIME THE FRONT ACTUALLY ARRIVES. REGARDLESS, WITH STRONG, DEEP
LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED, THERE COULD STILL BE A SEVERE THREAT,
PARTICULARLY IF THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS DO NOT LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION, WITH DAMAGING WINDS, AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE
HAIL WITH ANY STORMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS WITH
THIS SYSTEM, IS MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD GET A WETTING RAIN OUT
OF IT, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DAMPENING FIRE CONCERNS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG CAA WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO TAKE HOLD
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, AS WELL AS USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR AS OF
LATE. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE INTO THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES EARLY NEXT WEEK, DEPENDING ON CLEARING/DECOUPLING OF WINDS
AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE, A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL, WINDS AT THIS POINT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT RED FLAG HEADLINES.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 16Z WHEN WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20 KTS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO SE OHIO
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, PATCHY MVFR/IFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT SOME TAF SITES.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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