045
FXUS61 KRLX 172342
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
742 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
742 PM UPDATE... NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION.
135 PM UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
- 2) COOLER AND DRIER TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THERE DOES HOWEVER REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY CONCERNING
SEVERE POTENTIAL. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TODAY ACROSS
THE MIDWEST, SHOULD SPREAD AMPLE CLOUD COVER INTO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN AS TO ANY REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TODAYS CONVECTION, AND HOW FAR EAST THEY ARE
ABLE TO PROGRESS, THEREBY LIMITING INSTABILITY/SEVERE POTENTIAL BY
THE TIME THE FRONT ACTUALLY ARRIVES. REGARDLESS, WITH STRONG, DEEP
LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED, THERE COULD STILL BE A SEVERE THREAT,
PARTICULARLY IF THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS DO NOT LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION, WITH DAMAGING WINDS, AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE
HAIL WITH ANY STORMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS WITH
THIS SYSTEM, IS MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD GET A WETTING RAIN OUT
OF IT, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DAMPENING FIRE CONCERNS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG CAA WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO TAKE HOLD
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, AS WELL AS USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR AS OF
LATE. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE INTO THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES EARLY NEXT WEEK, DEPENDING ON CLEARING/DECOUPLING OF WINDS
AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE, A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL, WINDS AT THIS POINT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT RED FLAG HEADLINES.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY,
WITH THE PRESENCE OF RATHER DRY AIR HELPING SUPPRESS FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE WESTERN TERMINALS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN ACTIVITY
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS.
WINDS SHOULD BE CALM TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT, THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS TOWARDS MORNING. GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY, WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD FORM TONIGHT AT
SOME TAF SITES. ONSET TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST. RESTRICTIONS WITHIN THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD ALSO BE WORSE THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT, AS WELL AS ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION THAT PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...20
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