191
FXUS61 KRLX 180930
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
530 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THE ONLY SMALL DIFFERENCE IS THAT ICE PELLETS WERE
TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY AS
SOUNDINGS DID NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THAT
PRECIPITATION TYPE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ALL HAZARDS
EVENT.
2) COOLER AND DRIER TO START NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST AND FREEZE WEATHER.
3) THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL START TO AFFECT
THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WITH SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVERAGE WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A
LATER TIME FRAME FOR THE ACTUAL FRONT TO ARRIVE WILL BE
BENEFICIAL FOR A LOWER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALONG THE FRONT.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH MODEST CAPE ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH TO GET EXCITED
ABOUT. THE WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN STORMS
INITIALLY, HOWEVER ONCE THE ACTUAL FRONT GETS HERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOWER AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LESS INTENSE. WITH
THAT SAID, ENOUGH HELICITY WILL PROVIDE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR MAINLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HAIL WILL BE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND.
THERE COULD ALSO VERY WELL BE A HYDRO ASPECT WITH DECENT PWATS
AND LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AS THE FRONT DRAWS NEAR ACCORDING
TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WITH A VERY MOIST COLUMN AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT THERE COULD BE SOME
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, BUT WOULD BE LOCALIZED AND MAINLY
AFFECTING LOW LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE
MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO PUSH THINGS ALONG FAIRLY WELL SO THIS
FLOODING POTENTIAL IS VERY LIMITED.
WITH THE EXIT OF THIS FEATURE BY SUNDAY MORNING, COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ADVECT IN PROMOTING LOWER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES
MAY EVEN TURN INTO SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE HIGHEST
PEAKS AND RIDGES ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGS MORE
MOISTURE TO THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH RAIN POTENTIAL
ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOR MONDAY MORNING, FROST AND FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
COLDER AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BE FREEZING WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA, EXCLUDING
THE PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS WHO WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
FREEZING ENOUGH TO DETER FROST, WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING
ALLOWING FOR FROST TO DEVELOP. THERE WILL BE WIND OVERNIGHT, BUT
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MUCH OF THE FROST DEVELOPMENT.
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
AND FREEZE HEADLINES. THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS WHO MAY BE LEFT OUT OF THE FROST POTENTIAL ONCE
AGAIN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY UNDER WEAK SURFACE FLOW.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE AREA WILL WARM BACK UP TO ABOVE
SEASONABLE AND THE START OF A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE GOING
THROUGH FRIDAY DETERRING THE FROST OR FREEZE POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR A FIRE THREAT AND ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THEY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG
CRITERIA RATHER THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS DAILY DUE TO LOW RH VALUES AND ELEVATED SURFACE FLOW
FOR ALMOST EVERY AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL SWING BY THE AREA, HOPEFULLY PROVIDING
SOME RELIEF TO SUPPRESS FIRE DANGER IN CERTAIN AREAS, HOWEVER
THESE DISTURBANCES LOOK VERY MINOR AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY NOT RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL. WITH A GOOD WETTING EXPECTED
TODAY INTO SUNDAY HOPEFULLY THAT WILL REFRAIN THE FIRE DANGER
THREAT FOR AT LEAST INTO MONDAY. REGARDLESS, THIS SETUP WILL
HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED ON A DAILY BASIS AND COLLABORATED
WITH LOCAL PARTNERS TO SEE IF ANY SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
WILL BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE INTO THIS MID AFTERNOON AT WHICH
POINT WILL START TO CHANGE CATEGORIES AS CONVECTION AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL INITIATE AND BRING RAIN, SOMETIMES ON THE
HEAVIER SIDE, ESPECIALLY UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WHICH
WILL BRING VIS DOWN TO MVFR OR WORSE. HEAVY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER 01Z AND THEN MOSTLY JUST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL EXISTS WHICH COULD BRING DOWN VIS AS WELL. CIGS
SHOULD LOWER IN HEIGHT PROGRESSIVELY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WHERE
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD LOW MVFR OR EVEN IFR COULD GET
INTO THE SITES INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE CLOUDS
START TO CLEAR OUT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TODAY MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST. RESTRICTIONS WITHIN THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD ALSO BE WORSE THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 04/18/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS OR LOW CLOUDS
THAT PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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