117
FXUS61 KRLX 181839
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST, BUT DID ISSUE A FREEZE
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL
BE NEEDED. A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ALL HAZARDS
EVENT. CURRENT TRENDS SHOW A LOWERING THREAT.
2) COOLER AND DRIER TO START NEXT WEEK WITH FROST AND FREEZE
WEATHER.
3) THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE AREA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. CURRENTLY A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS IS MOVING INTO EASTERN OH AND NE KY AND APPROACHING WV.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND OUTFLOWS OUTPACING THE DEEPER
CONVECTION, THE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
CURRENT CAMS SHOWING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FOR CONVECTION
AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH/CENTRAL WV.
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE COALFIELDS, NE KY, AND SW VA, THERE IS
A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY AND CAM SUPPORT OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER THE
THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND PRIMARILY BE A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. NONETHELESS, IT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT, WITH A
FEW SNOW FLAKES OR WINTRY MIX LIKELY IN THE MTNS. EVEN A DUSTING
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BELOW 36 FOR SOME LOCALES,
CLOUDS/WIND SHOULD NEGATE ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT. A BETTER
CHANCE IS FOR THE MTNS AND SOME FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, WHERE A FREEZE WATCH WAS ISSUED. THERE
COULD BE AN EXPANSION OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES, ESPECIALLY FOR
PORTIONS OF SE OH, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. THERE
COULD ALSO BE MORE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE HIGHER PEAKS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE, WHICH WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT
LOWLAND LOCATIONS WITH AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
DAILY MIN RHS WILL BE IN THE 20S/30S PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL SWING BY THE AREA,
HOPEFULLY PROVIDING SOME RELIEF TO SUPPRESS FIRE DANGER IN
CERTAIN AREAS, HOWEVER THESE DISTURBANCES LOOK VERY MINOR AND
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL. WITH A
GOOD WETTING EXPECTED TODAY INTO SUNDAY HOPEFULLY THAT WILL
REFRAIN THE FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR AT LEAST INTO MONDAY.
REGARDLESS, THIS SETUP WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED ON A
DAILY BASIS AND COLLABORATED WITH LOCAL PARTNERS TO SEE IF ANY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WITH SHRA/TSRA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER CONVECTION, EVENTUALLY DROPPING TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR FROM LOW CLOUD DECKS AND LINGERING SHOWERS
INTO SUNDAY EARLY MORNING.
IFR/MVFR IMPROVES FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. VFR RETURNS AREA WIDE BY MID MORNING.
EXPECT W/NW SFC WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 KTS
LOWLANDS AND UP TO 30 KTS MTNS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TODAY MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST. RESTRICTIONS WITHIN THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD ALSO BE WORSE THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M L H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH MVFR DUE TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ522-523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRM
AVIATION...JRM
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