538
FXUS61 KRLX 190010
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
810 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
810 PM UPDATE... WHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE AREA, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED
FOR TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LINE,
THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT.
239 PM UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST, BUT DID
ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IS
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER AND DRIER TO START NEXT WEEK WITH FROST AND FREEZE
WEATHER.
2) THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT, WITH
A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR WINTRY MIX LIKELY IN THE MTNS. EVEN A
DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BELOW 36 FOR SOME LOCALES,
CLOUDS/WIND SHOULD NEGATE ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT. A BETTER
CHANCE IS FOR THE MTNS AND SOME FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, WHERE A FREEZE WATCH WAS ISSUED. THERE
COULD BE AN EXPANSION OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES, ESPECIALLY FOR
PORTIONS OF SE OH, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. THERE
COULD ALSO BE MORE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE HIGHER PEAKS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE, WHICH WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT
LOWLAND LOCATIONS WITH AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DAILY MIN RHS WILL BE IN THE 20S/30S PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL SWING BY THE AREA,
HOPEFULLY PROVIDING SOME RELIEF TO SUPPRESS FIRE DANGER IN
CERTAIN AREAS, HOWEVER THESE DISTURBANCES LOOK VERY MINOR AND
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL. WITH A
GOOD WETTING EXPECTED TODAY INTO SUNDAY HOPEFULLY THAT WILL
REFRAIN THE FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR AT LEAST INTO MONDAY.
REGARDLESS, THIS SETUP WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED ON A
DAILY BASIS AND COLLABORATED WITH LOCAL PARTNERS TO SEE IF ANY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT, PROMPTING OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS WITHIN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS CEILINGS LOWER BEHIND THE LINE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD ALSO LEAD TO SPORADIC
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING, WITH AREA WIDE VFR
RETURNING BY AFTERNOON.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS COULD
EXPERIENCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN PRECIPITATION COULD VARY
FROM THE FORECAST. ONSET OF LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT AND
IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H M H H H H M H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND IFR
POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ522-523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRM
AVIATION...20
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