979
FXUS61 KRLX 200609
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
209 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING
AMID A PASSING SHORTWAVE. COLDER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL ONCE AGAIN GO INTO EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
2) ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE PRESENT TODAY AND
TUESDAY AMID AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ANCHORED OVERHEAD. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS WILL BOLSTER THESE CONCERNS BEFORE A
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES AND CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES THEN RETURN ONCE MORE
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
3) PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
MIDWEEK AND THE WEEKEND AMID MULTIPLE PASSING DISTURBANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICT SCATTERED SHOWERS
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. DESPITE PREDOMINANTLY DRY LOW
LEVEL PROFILES, THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATION OF RAIN DROPS
REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA. THESE SHOWERS ARE PROGGED TO PETER OUT LATER THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WITH THE FRONT, IMPOSING NEAR
TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN YIELD DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
IN ADDITION THE LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE A SURGE OF COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. FOR EARLY THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE HIGHER WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAINS ARE PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S,
WARRANTING THE FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM THIS
MORNING. IN THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS, FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE
PRESENT BY DAWN ONCE SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT.
STRONGER SUPPORT FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OVERHEAD. THIS FEATURE WILL
YIELD SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AMID CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL
RESULT IN WIDE SPREAD TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S OR
LOWER. UNDERCUT CENTRAL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE
STRONG SIGNAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, WHICH THEN ONCE AGAIN
WARRANTED HEADLINES FOR FROST/FREEZE. UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH
TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE BULK OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS
INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE KANAWHA
VALLEY AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS TAKING HOLD. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BOTH DAYS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE,
WITH POCKETS OF TEENS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE, EXPECTING A CLEAR, COLD NIGHT FOR MONDAY
NIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL APPEAR ONCE MORE THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE. FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY,
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE FLOW
WEAKENS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE HIGH, AND RAINFALL FROM
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HELP INITIALLY TO SUPPRESS DRY GROUND
CONDITIONS AND FUELS. HOWEVER, COULD SEE THIS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN BY TUESDAY AS DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TRANSPIRES.
POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAIN PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BEHIND THIS WAVE, THE HEAT BUILDS BACK INTO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
PROMOTING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER
OPPORTUNITIES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES PREVAILS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY AID IN UNSEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS
OBSERVED THUS FAR THIS SPRING.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
EARLY MORNING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
NEAR DAYBREAK, WITH DRIER WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST INTO THE DAY, WITH SOME
AFTERNOON STRONG BREEZES NEARING 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS. SURFACE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME CALM
LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AMID THE SURFACE HIGH
ANCHORED OVERHEAD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH, EXCEPT MEDIUM WITH SNOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF
SNOW RESTRICTIONS AT EKN COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 04/20/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR ANTICIPATED.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ006>011-
014>020-026>032-034-039-040-515>521-524.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
WVZ005-006-013>015-024>026-033.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ522-523-525-
526.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
WVZ007>011-016>020-027>032-034-039-040-515>526.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ076-083-
085>087.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
OHZ087.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
084.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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