164
FXUS61 KRLX 032341
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
741 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE, IN WHICH THERE MAY BE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN SHOWERS MONDAY. RAISED POPS TO THE LATEST NBM VALUES, BUT
STILL SHORT OF LIKELY.
PREVIOUS, AS OF 204 PM SUNDAY...
FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN STEADY WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE CRAWLING
IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS ALSO INTRODUCED FOR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK ON TAP AMID PASSING SHORTWAVES FOR
THE START OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FEATURING HIGHER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
2) COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT ADVERTISES
CHILLY NIGHTS AND A MOUNTAINOUS WINTRY MIX FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A PLEASANT CONCLUSION TO THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR RAIN
RETURN TO THE FORECAST STARTING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A SMALL AREA OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET PIVOT INTO THE REGION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FIRST INVADE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING, FULLY ENCASING THE
FORECAST AREA IN A BLANKET OF OVERCAST SKIES BY MIDNIGHT. ENOUGH
MOISTURE DIVING INTO THE AREA MAY SUPPORT A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH/NORTHEAST KY DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN COALFIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA, BUT MAY BARELY REGISTER A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE PROCESS. ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES INTO THE DAY MONDAY.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL IN MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE BEFORE THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT GALLIVANTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA AT A SLUGGISH PACE, BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE
PROCESS, WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO PARTS OF THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE EVENT AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE RIDES
FURTHER NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAN CURRENTLY HINTED UPON
BY MODEL GUIDANCE.
WPC HAS PLACED THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THEIR DAY 4 (12Z WEDNESDAY TO 12Z
THURSDAY) OUTLOOK, WITH A SLIGHT RISK LOOMING IN THE MISSISSIPPI
BASIN WHERE THE LOBE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO TAKE
PLACE. DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO EVADE FLOODING CONCERNS INITIALLY WITH THE
ONSET OF RAINFALL. LONGEVITY AND EXTENT OF RAIN, HOWEVER, COULD
EVENTUALLY OVERWHELM SOILS IN A LOCALIZED CAPACITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, COLDER AIR NAVIGATES
DOWN INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL IMPOSE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME
THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY NIGHT COULD CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX
AMID THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK DISTURBANCE CRAWLING IN FROM THE WEST AMID WEAK WARM
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL INTRODUCE A BROKEN MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK, ALONGSIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO FIRE UP, PRIMARILY
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY, BUT ALSO ALONG/NEAR THE TUG FORK
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AS DEPICTED BY THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FROM SPC. THEIR DAY TWO OUTLOOK SHOWS GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE FOR MONDAY.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ON
VISIBILITY AND CEILING, EVEN BRIEF IFR UNDER A THUNDERSTORM,
BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW TONIGHT WILL BECOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FIRST THING MONDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO
25 KT RANGE AT TIMES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST, WITH A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
DURING THE PERIOD.
THE SURFACE FLOW AND INCREASE IN CLOUD TONIGHT, DO NOT FORESEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF DECOUPLING AND FOG.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CODE COULD IMPACT
THE TERMINALS MORE THAN FORECAST, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING, BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY ANYWHERE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN/STORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS DATE WERE SET OR TIED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
TODAY. AT HUNTINGTON, HTS, THE RECORD LOW OF 31 DEGREES SET IN
1900 WAS TIED. AT PARKERSBURG, PKB, THE LOW OF 30 DEGREES THIS
MORNING BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 34 SET IN 1981. THE CLIMATE
PERIOD OF RECORD GOES BACK TO 1897 FOR HTS AND 1926 FOR PKB.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...TRM
CLIMATE...TRM
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