192
FXUS61 KRLX 050927
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
527 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY, ENTERING NORTHERN ZONES BY
EARLY EVENING. MULTIPLE WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT MID WEEK WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.
2) COOLER AND DRIER FOR FRIDAY, WITH AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUESDAY, AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A POP UP SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
EXPECTED, HOWEVER, NO SEVERE IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF STRONG
DYNAMICS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH PW
VALUES PROGGED TO TOP OUT AT AT LEAST 1.3 INCHES.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A LOW MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD, WITH MOST AREAS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO GET AT LEAST HALF
AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD, BEFORE FINALLY KICKING OFF FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. DRIER, ALTHOUGH
POTENTIALLY SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY,
WITH UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA, DRYING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
AT THIS POINT WPC HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM OUR AREA. THINKING IF THERE ANY WATER ISSUES, IT WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SECONDARY LOW WILL GRADUALLY EXIT OFF TO THE EAST LATER IN THE
DAY THURSDAY, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS, AND CLEARING
TAKING HOLD FOR EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE
WEST. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER, A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, BUT ALSO CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. WILL DEPEND ON CLEARING AND HOW QUICKLY WINDS CAN SLACKEN
ACROSS THE AREA.
AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LLWS THROUGH 10-12Z AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z, WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, AFTER 21Z, SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE NORTH, WITH A GRADUAL
DETERIORATION TO WIDESPREAD MVFR, MAINLY NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER, 00Z-06Z, WITH DETERIORATION TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS
OF IFR AFTER 06-12Z. LOCAL LIFR OR WORSE IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
AFTER 06Z IN RAIN, WHICH WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND GUSTY AT TIMES, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20 KT RANGE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION/RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/05/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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