616
FXUS61 KRLX 051849
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
ADDED TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN OH COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN KY FOR TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAVE TRENDED DOWN SOME. FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HAS LESSENED SOME.
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED.
2) COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
FRIDAY. FROST CONCERNS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME OF
THE LOWLANDS FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
REINTRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ROUNDS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERSPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ACCORDING TO
CONVECTIVE MODELS, PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN
1.00" AND 1.50" WITH HIGH PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING SHOWERS AND
STORMS DUE TO SLOW COLD FRONT AND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MOTION.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IS
VERY LOW TO NONEXISTENT.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO COUNTIES AND CARTER AND
GREENUP COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY. MOSTLY, FOR THE INITIAL FORCED ROUND
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THAT COULD PRODUCE UP TO 0.30" OF RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAY OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST OHIO IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, BUT
OTHERWISE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH WATER ISSUES ACROSS OUR AREA.
OUR AREA, MINUS SOUTHEASTERN OHIO, IS UNDER MODERATE TO SEVERE
DROUGHT, SO RAINFALL IS NEEDED.
MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE LULL IN ACTIVITY BY MID WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE SLACKING OFF AND THERE
MAY BE A BREAK IN RAINFALL COVERAGE UNTIL MORE SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORM IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND OUR VIRGINIA
COUNTIES. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT A STRONGER
STORM MAY OCCUR ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES GIVEN ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE WRAPPING UP WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. OVERALL, A SOLID 0.50" TO 0.75" OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SOME OUTLIERS
CLOSER TO AN INCH POSSIBLE, MOSTLY ACROSS THE COALFIELDS AND
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE
LOWLANDS WILL DROP FROM THE 70S INTO THE LOW 60S AND UPPER 50S
FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 45 DEGREES WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 36-38
DEGREE RANGE. THIS RAISES A CONCERN FOR FROST FORMATION WITH
ONE CAVEAT BEING POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES
ON SATURDAY LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CURRENTLY THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS
LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LLWS BETWEEN ~04-12Z AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST ~00Z UNDER BKN OR SCT
MID DECKS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
REINTRODUCING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN ~02-04Z. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AFTER
~06Z AT MOST SITES AS TRAINING SHOWERS TRAVERSE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST DUE TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN. MVFR AND IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IS SOME LLWS PROVIDED THAT
GUSTS TAPER OFF.
A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AROUND OR JUST AFTER ~12Z
WEDNESDAY, BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT NEARLY ALL SITES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
SSW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY; SUSTAINED BETWEEN 12-17 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS FOR MOST SITES. GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP OFF BY ~23-00Z THIS EVENING, BUT WILL LIKELY
RETURN WITH THE ACTIVE CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY (~09-12Z)
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. WIND GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER TODAY THAN
FORECASTED AND WIND GUSTS MAY EVEN LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING,
MAKING LLWS OBSOLETE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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